KRAS cashflow is positive
KRAS Current 434 Target 487 + 12%
Sep 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
18% -3% -2% 24% -2%
571 555 546 676 662
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-101% -98% -104% -97% -95%
10 27 3 27 52
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-52 -48 136 58 -5
-42 -34 -54 -15 9
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
73 96 85 124 127
3,182 3,322 3,252 3,359 3,305
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities & equity million dollars
-684 -787 -694 -692 -701
-46 -103 87 2 -9
0 0 0 0 0
Sep 6, 2022
1 minute read
- KRAS last 12 months sales growth less than average + 16%
- KRAS last 12 months cashflow 2X average + 8% of market cap
- KRAS last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
- KRAS latest net cash -549% of market cap
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
18% -3% -2% 24% -2%
571 555 546 676 662
- Sales declined -2% in the second quarter to 662 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 799 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-101% -98% -104% -97% -95%
10 27 3 27 52
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -95% profit from 27 to 52 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use a -97% cost ratio to predict a 66 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-52 -48 136 58 -5
-42 -34 -54 -15 9
- Free cashflow went from 43 to 4 million dollars in the second quarter with positive 9 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 12 million dollars now.
- We assume -3 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 23 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
73 96 85 124 127
3,182 3,322 3,252 3,359 3,305
- Cash increased 124 to 127 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,359 to 3,305 million dollars so net cash was up -3,235 to -3,178 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -93 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -3,085 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities & equity million dollars
-684 -787 -694 -692 -701
-46 -103 87 2 -9
0 0 0 0 0
- KRAS cumulative capital worsened -692 to -701 million dollars with -9 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -608 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 579 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.14 X assets with a 41 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 93 million dollars (vs 48 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 6 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 487 rupiah.
