KRAS cashflow jumps
KRAS Current 348 Target 505 + 45%
11/4/22
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth -9%
Last 12 months cash flow + 41% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 41% of market cap
Latest net cash -690% of market cap
Sales declined -24%
Last 5 quarters growth,sales million dollars
-3% -2% 24% -2% -24%
555 546 676 662 505
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-98% -104% -97% -95% -101%
27 3 27 52 4
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
-48 136 58 -5 56
-34 -54 -15 9 -2
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
96 85 124 127 77
3,322 3,252 3,359 3,305 3,172
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-787 -694 -692 -701 -604
-103 87 2 -9 97
0 0 0 0 0
11/4/22
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth -9%
Last 12 months cash flow + 41% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 41% of market cap
Latest net cash -690% of market cap
Sales declined -24%
Last 5 quarters growth,sales million dollars
-3% -2% 24% -2% -24%
555 546 676 662 505
- Sales declined -24% in the third quarter to 505 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 540 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-98% -104% -97% -95% -101%
27 3 27 52 4
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -101% profit from 52 to 4 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -99% now.
- We use a -95% cost ratio to predict a 37 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
-48 136 58 -5 56
-34 -54 -15 9 -2
- Free cashflow went from 4 to 54 million dollars in the third quarter with -2 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 46 million dollars now.
- We assume -2 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 25 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
96 85 124 127 77
3,322 3,252 3,359 3,305 3,172
- Cash declined 127 to 77 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,305 to 3,172 million dollars so net cash was up -3,178 to -3,095 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -100 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -2,995 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-787 -694 -692 -701 -604
-103 87 2 -9 97
0 0 0 0 0
- KRAS cumulative capital improved -701 to -604 million dollars with + 97 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -504 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 449 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.12 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 100 million dollars (vs 183 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 6.5 X valuation gives a 45% higher target price 505 rupiah.
