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KOBX still looking very sharp with a 16% yield forecast
KOBX Current 394 Target 1,288 + 227%
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales leapt 56%
Last 5 quarters
43% 50% -2% -10% 56%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-93% -92% -93% -68% -89%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
0, 8, 20, 23, 21
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-84 -83 -72 -77 -83
Capital paid improved , a 227% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-13, -6, 14, 34, 41
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales leapt 56%
Last 5 quarters
43% 50% -2% -10% 56%
- Sales leapt 56% in the first quarter to 47 million dollars 64% above our 28 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 23% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 56 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-93% -92% -93% -68% -89%
- The cash cost ratio went from -68% to -89% profit from 9 to 4 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 7 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
0, 8, 20, 23, 21
- Free cashflow went from 23 to 21 million dollars in the first quarter with -0 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 18 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -0 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 8 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-84 -83 -72 -77 -83
- Cash increased 4 to 18 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 81 to 101 million dollars so net cash worsened -77 to -83 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -11 million dollars equity payout -19 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -63 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 227% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-13, -6, 14, 34, 41
- KOBX 21 quarter capital paid improved 34 to 41 million dollars in the first quarter with a -7 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 70 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 64 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.47 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 16% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 30 million dollars which means a 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 227% higher target price 1,288 rupiah.