KOBX at 4X cashflow
KOBX Current 372 Target 472 + 27%
Nov 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 36%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
-2% -10% 56% -26% 36%
33 30 47 35 47
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-93% -93% -89% -94% -94%
2 9 4 1 1
Cashflow flat
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
21 15 20 4 6
-1 7 -0 1 -1
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
2 4 18 22 26
74 81 101 124 145
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity million dollars
14 34 41 42 43
21 20 7 1 -0
0 0 0 0 1
Nov 14, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 41%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 13% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 49% of market cap
- Latest net cash -204% of market cap
Sales grew 36%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
-2% -10% 56% -26% 36%
33 30 47 35 47
- Sales grew 36% in the third quarter to 47 million dollars our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 14% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 57 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-93% -93% -89% -94% -94%
2 9 4 1 1
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -94% profit from 1 to 1 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use a -92% cost ratio to predict a 3 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow flat
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
21 15 20 4 6
-1 7 -0 1 -1
- Free cashflow was flat at 5 million dollars in the third quarter with -1 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 13 million dollars now.
- We assume -1 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 4 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
2 4 18 22 26
74 81 101 124 145
- Cash increased 22 to 26 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 124 to 145 million dollars so net cash was down -102 to -119 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -14 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -105 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity million dollars
14 34 41 42 43
21 20 7 1 -0
0 0 0 0 1
- KOBX capital improved 42 to 43 million dollars with -0 & + 1 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 57 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 58 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.32 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 14 million dollars which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 27% higher target price 472 rupiah.
