KOBX at 3X cashflow
KOBX Current 400 Target 797 + 99%
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 112% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 76% of market cap
Latest net cash -163% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -26%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
34, 33, 30, 47, 35
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-92% -93% -93% -89% -94%
2 2 9 4 1
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
8 20 23 21 6
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
3 2 4 18 22
86 74 81 101 124
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-6 14 34 41 42
6 21 20 7 1
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 112% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 76% of market cap
Latest net cash -163% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -26%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
34, 33, 30, 47, 35
- Sales declined seasonally -26% in the second quarter to 35 million dollars our forecasts v sales is 9% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 48 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-92% -93% -93% -89% -94%
2 2 9 4 1
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -94% profit from 4 to 1 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the average -92% cost ratio to predict a 3 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
8 20 23 21 6
- Free cashflow went from 21 to 6 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 18 million dollars now.
- We assume positive 1 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 5 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
3 2 4 18 22
86 74 81 101 124
- Cash increased 18 to 22 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 101 to 124 million dollars so net cash was down -83 to -102 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1 million dollars equity payout -19 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -83 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-6 14 34 41 42
6 21 20 7 1
0 0 0 0 0
- KOBX cumulative capital improved 41 to 42 million dollars with + 1 & + 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 61 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 63 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.40 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 20 million dollars which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 99% higher target price 797 rupiah.
