KO stronger sales/cashflow
KO Current 65 Target 74 + 14%
Aug 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
10,129 10,042 9,464 10,491 11,325
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-71% -69% -76% -71% -70%
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
5,923 3,872 -1,290 769 2,632
Net cash up, last 12 months change -1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-56,751 -55,171 -59,810 -59,542 -59,390
Capital improved, last 12 months + 2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
46,337 47,966 47,808 49,804 50,736
Aug 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
10,129 10,042 9,464 10,491 11,325
- Sales grew 8% in the second quarter to 11,325 million dollars -1% below our 11,435 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 12,300 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-71% -69% -76% -71% -70%
- The cash cost ratio went from -71% to -70% profit from 2,793 to 1,900 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -72% now.
- We use a -71% cost ratio to predict a 3,076 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
5,923 3,872 -1,290 769 2,632
- Free cashflow went from 769 to 2,632 million dollars in the second quarter with -1,291 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,496 million dollars
- We assume lower -281 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives -281 million dollars Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Net cash up, last 12 months change -1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-56,751 -55,171 -59,810 -59,542 -59,390
- Cash increased 7,681 to 8,976 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 67,223 to 68,366 million dollars so net cash was up -59,542 to -59,390 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -8,006 million dollars equity payout -4,225 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -55,165 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
46,337 47,966 47,808 49,804 50,736
- KO 26 quarter cumulative capital improved 49,804 to 50,736 million dollars in the second quarter with -2,085 million dollars from liabilities + 3,017 million dollars from equity & will be 62,966 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 279,025 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.0 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 12,230 million dollars which means a 23 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 14% higher target price 74 rupiah.
