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KLBF looking sharp with a 5% yield forecast
KLBF Current 1,615 Target 2,178 35%
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
-0% 6% 6% 6% -2%
Costs up profit down slightly
Last 5 quarters
-85% -85% -86% -85% -86%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
44, 147, 1,251, 328, 200
Balance sheet net cash down
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
848, 514, 1,372, 1,815, 1,451
Capital paid improved, a 35% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,402, 6,246, 6,402, 6,132, 6,176
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
-0% 6% 6% 6% -2%
- Sales declined -2% in the first quarter to 7,016 billion rupiah -1% below our 7,091 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,414 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down slightly
Last 5 quarters
-85% -85% -86% -85% -86%
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -86% profit from 908 to 853 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 972 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
44, 147, 1,251, 328, 200
- Free cashflow went from 328 to 200 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -136 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 482 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -136 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 982 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash down
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
848, 514, 1,372, 1,815, 1,451
- Cash increased 6,216 to 6,367 billion rupiah in the first quarter
- Liabilities increased 4,401 to 4,916 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 1,815 to 1,451 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3,827 billion rupiah equity payout -912 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 1,551 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 35% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,402, 6,246, 6,402, 6,132, 6,176
- KLBF 29 quarter capital paid improved 6,132 to 6,176 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 134 billion rupiah new liabilities, a -178 billion rupiah equity payout & will be 10,914 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 75,700 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,927 billion rupiah which means an 19 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 35% higher target price 2,178 rupiah.