KLBF cumulative capital rising
KLBF Current 1,585 Target 1,979 + 25%
Aug 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,355 6,728 7,163 7,016 6,859
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-85% -86% -85% -86% -86%
Cashflow negative , last 12 months + 2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
147 1,251 328 200 -125
Balance sheet net cash down last 12 months change + -1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
514 1,372 1,815 1,451 -400
Capital improved last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,246 6,402 6,132 6,176 8,308
Aug 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,355 6,728 7,163 7,016 6,859
- Sales declined -2% in the second quarter to 6,859 billion rupiah -6% below our 7,296 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,414 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-85% -86% -85% -86% -86%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -86% profit declined from 853 to 820 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 896 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative , last 12 months + 2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
147 1,251 328 200 -125
- Free cashflow went from 200 to -125 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -122 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 413 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -122 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 892 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash down last 12 months change + -1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
514 1,372 1,815 1,451 -400
- Cash declined 6,367 to 4,133 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- Liabilities declined 4,916 to 4,533 billion rupiah so net cash was down 1,451 to -400 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,389 billion rupiah equity payout -838 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 812 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,246 6,402 6,132 6,176 8,308
- KLBF 30 quarter cumulative capital improved 6,176 to 8,308 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 131 billion rupiah from liabilities + 2,002 billion rupiah from equity & will be 11,535 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 74,294 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,568 billion rupiah which means an 21 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 25% higher target price 1,979 rupiah.
