KLBF reaches target price
KLBF Current 2,020 Target 2,133 + 6%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 6% -2% -2% 7%
6,728 7,163 7,016 6,859 7,307
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-86% -85% -86% -86% -86%
813 908 853 820 862
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,489 501 318 -28 226
-259 -194 -136 -122 -208
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,647 6,216 6,367 4,133 4,144
4,275 4,401 4,916 4,533 5,038
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
6,344 6,074 6,118 8,250 8,297
84 88 -134 131 -463
72 -357 178 2,002 510
10/31/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months Sales growth + 9%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -1% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 6% -2% -2% 7%
6,728 7,163 7,016 6,859 7,307
- Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 7,307 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -0% now.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,445 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-86% -85% -86% -86% -86%
813 908 853 820 862
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -86% profit increased from 820 to 862 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use a -86% cost ratio to predict a 907 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,489 501 318 -28 226
-259 -194 -136 -122 -208
- Free cashflow went positive from -150 to 18 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -208 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 89 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -208 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 855 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,647 6,216 6,367 4,133 4,144
4,275 4,401 4,916 4,533 5,038
- Cash increased 4,133 to 4,144 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,533 to 5,038 billion rupiah so net cash was down -400 to -894 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,498 billion rupiah equity payout -923 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 29 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
6,344 6,074 6,118 8,250 8,297
84 88 -134 131 -463
72 -357 178 2,002 510
- KLBF capital improved 8,250 to 8,297 billion rupiah with -463 & + 510 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 11,719 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 93,948 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 4 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,421 billion rupiah which means a 27 X valuation. A 29 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price 2,133 rupiah.
