KIJA.jk Cashflow negative
Current 138 Target 148 + 7%
1/23/2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
13% 56% -40% 27% -6%
536 ; 837 ; 500 ; 637 ; 600 billion rupiah
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 32% 3% 4% -3%
-22 ; 216 ; -29 ; -14 ; -59 billion rupiah
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
6 ; 166 ; -87 ; 242 ; 134 billion rupiah
-71 ; -96 ; -39 ; -67 ; -176 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1061 ; 1112 ; 975 ; 1175 ; 1,141 billion rupiah
6,206 ; 5,920 ; 5,873 ; 6,095 ; 6,277 billion rupiah
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
24 ; 20 ; 11 ; -15 ; 9 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; -24 billion rupiah
Current 138 Target 148 + 7%
1/23/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 12%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 0% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -181% of market cap
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
13% 56% -40% 27% -6%
536 ; 837 ; 500 ; 637 ; 600 billion rupiah
- Sales declined -6% in the third quarter to 600 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -53% now.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 31% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,671 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 32% 3% 4% -3%
-22 ; 216 ; -29 ; -14 ; -59 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 4% to -3% profit from -14 to -59 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 9% now.
- We use a 15% cash margin to predict a 206 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
6 ; 166 ; -87 ; 242 ; 134 billion rupiah
-71 ; -96 ; -39 ; -67 ; -176 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 175 to -42 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -176 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 19 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -94 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 84 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1061 ; 1112 ; 975 ; 1175 ; 1,141 billion rupiah
6,206 ; 5,920 ; 5,873 ; 6,095 ; 6,277 billion rupiah
- Cash declined 1175 to 1,141 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 6,095 to 6,277 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,920 to -5,136 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -337 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,799 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
24 ; 20 ; 11 ; -15 ; 9 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; -24 billion rupiah
- KIJA.jk (raised) -15 billion rupiah in the third quarter 9 billion rupiah liabilities -24 billion rupiah equity, will pay 337 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 2,833 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.22 X assets with a 35 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 337 billion rupiah which means a 8 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price 148 rupiah.