KEJU.jk Cashflow negative
Current 1,385 Target 1,671 + 21%
12/29/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -18%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-7% 31% -5% -2% -18%
234 ; 307 ; 292 ; 287 ; 234 billion rupiah
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
17% 16% 17% 17% 18%
33 ; 40 ; 40 ; 40 ; 34 billion rupiah
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
98 ; 15 ; 42 ; 53 ; 14 billion rupiah
-3 ; 1 ; -4 ; 3 ; -107 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
214 ; 160 ; 178 ; 186 ; 107 billion rupiah
212 ; 182 ; 221 ; 204 ; 154 billion rupiah
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
43 ; 43 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
Current 1,385 Target 1,671 + 21%
12/29/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth 0%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 2% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -2% of market cap
Sales declined -18%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-7% 31% -5% -2% -18%
234 ; 307 ; 292 ; 287 ; 234 billion rupiah
- Sales declined -18% in the third quarter to 234 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 260 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
17% 16% 17% 17% 18%
33 ; 40 ; 40 ; 40 ; 34 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 17% to 18% profit from 40 to 34 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 17% now.
- We use a 17% cash margin to predict a 35 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
98 ; 15 ; 42 ; 53 ; 14 billion rupiah
-3 ; 1 ; -4 ; 3 ; -107 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 56 to -93 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -107 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 4 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 39 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
214 ; 160 ; 178 ; 186 ; 107 billion rupiah
212 ; 182 ; 221 ; 204 ; 154 billion rupiah
- Cash declined 186 to 107 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 204 to 154 billion rupiah so net cash was down -18 to -47 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -70 billion rupiah equity payout -29 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 40 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
43 ; 43 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
- KEJU.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 98 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 2,078 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.32 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 157 billion rupiah which means a 13 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 1,671 rupiah.