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KEJU looking sharper as positive cashflow returns
KEJU Current 1,250 Target 1,515 + 21%
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
17% 1% -7% 31% -5%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -83% -83% -84% -83%
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
38, 56, -93, -56, 19
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
23, 118, 2, -22, -43
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
439 439 439 439 439
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
17% 1% -7% 31% -5%
- Sales declined -5% in the first quarter to 292 billion rupiah -2% below our 297 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 319 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -83% -83% -84% -83%
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -83% profit was flat at 40 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use the average -83% cost ratio to predict a 45 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
38, 56, -93, -56, 19
- Free cashflow went positive again from -56 to 19 billion rupiah in the first quarter with lower -20 billion rupiah investment spending .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -19 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -20 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 32 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
23, 118, 2, -22, -43
- Cash increased 160 to 178 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 182 to 221 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -22 to -43 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -88 billion rupiah equity payout -41 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
439 439 439 439 439
- KEJU 17 quarters capital paid was flat at 439 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 568 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,875 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.10 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 126 billion rupiah which means a 15 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price of 1,515 rupiah.