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Picture
KEJU.jk Cashflow negative

Current 1,385 Target 1,671 + 21%

12/29/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth 0%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 2% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -2% of market cap
​
Sales declined -18%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-7% 31% -5% -2% -18%
234 ; 307 ; 292 ; 287 ; 234 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -18% in the third quarter to 234 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 1% now.
  • This brings the average to 2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 260 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
17% 16% 17% 17% 18%
33 ; 40 ; 40 ; 40 ; 34 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 17% to 18% profit from 40 to 34 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 17% now.
  • We use a 17% cash margin to predict a 35 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
98 ; 15 ; 42 ; 53 ; 14 billion rupiah
-3 ; 1 ; -4 ; 3 ; -107 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 56 to -93 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -107 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 4 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 39 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
214 ; 160 ; 178 ; 186 ; 107 billion rupiah
212 ; 182 ; 221 ; 204 ; 154 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 186 to 107 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 204 to 154 billion rupiah so net cash was down -18 to -47 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -70 billion rupiah equity payout -29 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 40 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
43 ; 43 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • KEJU.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 98 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 2,078 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.32 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 157 billion rupiah which means a 13 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 1,671 rupiah.
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