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KDSI looking quite sharp at only 4X forecast cashflow
KDSI Current 1,105 Target 1,489 + 35%
Jun 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 15% -2% 20% -7%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -93% -95% -97% -95%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
35, -130, -44, 63, -3
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-620 -678 -595 -548 -670
Capital paid improved a 35% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
168, 141, 115, 88, 124
Jun 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 15% -2% 20% -7%
- Sales declined -7% in the first quarter to 612 billion rupiah -3% below our 629 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 706 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -93% -95% -97% -95%
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -95% profit from 10 to 16 billion rupiah in the first quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the average -95% cost ratio to predict a 23 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
35, -130, -44, 63, -3
- Free cashflow went from 63 to -3 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -4 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -29 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 23 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-620 -678 -595 -548 -670
- Cash declined 81 to 42 billion rupiah in the first quarter
- Liabilities increased 629 to 712 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -548 to -670 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -121 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -477 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved a 35% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
168, 141, 115, 88, 124
- KDSI 25 quarter capital paid improved 88 to 124 billion rupiah in the first quarter with + 36 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will be 244 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 448 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.32 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 121 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 35% higher target price 1,489 rupiah.
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