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Picture
KDSI.jk Cashflow positive

Current 1,070 Target 1,316 + 23%

1/3/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 9%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 15% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -10% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -132% of market cap

Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-2% 20% -7% -9% 7%
547 ; 657 ; 612 ; 555 ; 595 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 595 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 6% now.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 649 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 3% 5% 5% 7%
15 ; 10 ; 16 ; 17 ; 26 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 5% to 7% profit from 17 to 26 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 5% now.
  • We use a 5% cash margin to predict a 20 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-39 ; 66 ; 1 ; -104 ; 121 billion rupiah
-5 ; -3 ; -4 ; -7 ; -6 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -111 to 115 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -6 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 16 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -6 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 27 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
45 ; 81 ; 42 ; 58 ; 102 billion rupiah
640 ; 629 ; 712 ; 801 ; 674 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 58 to 102 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 801 to 674 billion rupiah so net cash was up -743 to -572 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -8 billion rupiah equity payout -99 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -473 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-27 ; -27 ; 36 ; -127 ; 32 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 41 billion rupiah
  • KDSI.jk paid 73 billion rupiah in the third quarter 32 billion rupiah liabilities 41 billion rupiah equity, will pay 107 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 433 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.31 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 107 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 23% higher target price 1,316 rupiah.
SHARPFOKUS DATA
  • Asjmp
  • English
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  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
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  • BNLI
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  • BVIC
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  • CMNT
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  • DRMA
  • DUTI
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