KDSI.jk Cashflow positive
Current 1,070 Target 1,316 + 23%
1/3/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-2% 20% -7% -9% 7%
547 ; 657 ; 612 ; 555 ; 595 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 3% 5% 5% 7%
15 ; 10 ; 16 ; 17 ; 26 billion rupiah
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-39 ; 66 ; 1 ; -104 ; 121 billion rupiah
-5 ; -3 ; -4 ; -7 ; -6 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
45 ; 81 ; 42 ; 58 ; 102 billion rupiah
640 ; 629 ; 712 ; 801 ; 674 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-27 ; -27 ; 36 ; -127 ; 32 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 41 billion rupiah
Current 1,070 Target 1,316 + 23%
1/3/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 9%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 15% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -10% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -132% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-2% 20% -7% -9% 7%
547 ; 657 ; 612 ; 555 ; 595 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 595 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 6% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 649 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 3% 5% 5% 7%
15 ; 10 ; 16 ; 17 ; 26 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 5% to 7% profit from 17 to 26 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 5% now.
- We use a 5% cash margin to predict a 20 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-39 ; 66 ; 1 ; -104 ; 121 billion rupiah
-5 ; -3 ; -4 ; -7 ; -6 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from -111 to 115 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -6 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 16 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -6 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 27 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
45 ; 81 ; 42 ; 58 ; 102 billion rupiah
640 ; 629 ; 712 ; 801 ; 674 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 58 to 102 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 801 to 674 billion rupiah so net cash was up -743 to -572 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -8 billion rupiah equity payout -99 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -473 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-27 ; -27 ; 36 ; -127 ; 32 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 41 billion rupiah
- KDSI.jk paid 73 billion rupiah in the third quarter 32 billion rupiah liabilities 41 billion rupiah equity, will pay 107 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 433 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.31 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 107 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 23% higher target price 1,316 rupiah.