KAEF cashflow turns positive
KAEF Current 1,190 Target 1,166 -2%
11/12/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 25%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
21% -15% -33% -4% 25%
3,935 3,364 2,261 2,165 2,709
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-92% -97% -95% -103% -95%
241 -5 3 -209 22
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-309 722 -207 -487 57
-141 -328 -68 -152 -11
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
661 748 765 790 734
11,605 10,528 10,682 11,142 11,368
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-7,243 -6,927 -7,217 -7,870 -7,774
-243 318 -292 -666 86
-246 -9 0 12 9
11/12/2022
1 minute read
- KAEF last 12 months sales growth -31%
- KAEF last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- KAEF last 12 months Capital -4% of market cap
- KAEF latest net cash -76% of market cap
Sales grew seasonally 25%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
21% -15% -33% -4% 25%
3,935 3,364 2,261 2,165 2,709
- Sales grew 25% in the third quarter to 2,709 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to -7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,676 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-92% -97% -95% -103% -95%
241 -5 3 -209 22
- The cash cost ratio went from -103% to -95% profit from -209 to 22 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use a -96% cost ratio to predict a -19 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-309 722 -207 -487 57
-141 -328 -68 -152 -11
- Free cashflow went from -638 to 47 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -11 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -118 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -11 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 84 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
661 748 765 790 734
11,605 10,528 10,682 11,142 11,368
- Cash declined 790 to 734 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 11,142 to 11,368 billion rupiah so net cash was down -10,352 to -10,634 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 billion rupiah equity -336 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -10,298 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-7,243 -6,927 -7,217 -7,870 -7,774
-243 318 -292 -666 86
-246 -9 0 12 9
- KAEF cumulative capital improved -7,870 to -7,774 billion rupiah with + 86 & + 9 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -7,438 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 14,050 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 53 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 336 billion rupiah which means a 42 X valuation. A 41 X valuation gives a -2% lower target price 1,166 dollars.
