JSMR sales jump
JSMR Current 3,410 Target 3,269 -4%
11/1/2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 44%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 16% -9% -10% 44%
3,025 3,517 3,196 2,881 4,136
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-100% -73% -78% -71% -83%
-286 650 279 250 189
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
287 706 1,608 1,465 849
-1,089 -497 -494 -1,712 -1,591
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
3,747 6,279 4,482 5,511 4,846
80,037 75,743 73,157 74,935 74,247
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-67,524 -69,752 -66,841 -68,117 -68,194
-304 -2,145 2,913 -1,249 -77
-519 -83 -1 -27 0
11/1/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 37%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -280% of market cap
Sales jumped 44%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 16% -9% -10% 44%
3,025 3,517 3,196 2,881 4,136
- Sales jumped 44% in the third quarter to 4,136 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,495 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-100% -73% -78% -71% -83%
-286 650 279 250 189
- The cash cost ratio went from -71% to -83% profit from 250 to 189 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use a -76% cost ratio to predict a 535 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
287 706 1,608 1,465 849
-1,089 -497 -494 -1,712 -1,591
- Free cashflow went more negative from -247 to -742 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,591 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 84 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -494 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 494 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
3,747 6,279 4,482 5,511 4,846
80,037 75,743 73,157 74,935 74,247
- Cash declined 5,511 to 4,846 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 74,935 to 74,247 billion rupiah so net cash was up -69,424 to -69,401 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 billion rupiah equity -1,977 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -67,424 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-67,524 -69,752 -66,841 -68,117 -68,194
-304 -2,145 2,913 -1,249 -77
-519 -83 -1 -27 0
- JSMR cumulative capital worsened -68,117 to -68,194 billion rupiah with -77 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -66,217 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 24,749 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.25 X assets with a 48 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,977 billion rupiah (vs 335 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 13 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -4% higher target price 3,269 rupiah.
