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JSMR looking sharper as average cashflow turns positive
JSMR Current 3,780 Target 4,581 + 21%
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters
0% -10% 22% 16% -9%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -67% -100% -73% -78%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,269, 206, -802, 209, 1,115
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-75,450 -73,755 -76,290 -69,464 -68,675
Capital raised improved , a 21% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-68,196 -66,701 -67,524 -69,752 -66,841
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters
0% -10% 22% 16% -9%
- Sales declined seasonally -9% in the first quarter to 3,196 billion rupiah -4% below our 3,341 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,626 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -67% -100% -73% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -73% to -78% profit from 650 to 279 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use the latest -78% cost ratio to predict a 340 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,269, 206, -802, 209, 1,115
- Free cashflow went from 209 to 1,115 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -494 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is positive at 182 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -494 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 320 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-75,450 -73,755 -76,290 -69,464 -68,675
- Cash declined 6,279 to 4,482 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 75,743 to 73,157 billion rupiah so net cash improved -69,464 to -68,675 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,212 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -67,463 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 21% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-68,196 -66,701 -67,524 -69,752 -66,841
- JSMR 29 quarter capital raised improved -69,752 to -66,841 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -2,913 billion rupiah liabilities payment, 1 billion rupiah new equity & will be -65,629 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 27,435 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.28 X assets with a 74 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,279 billion rupiah which means a 21 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 4,581 rupiah.