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JSKY dull with negative cashflow
JSKY Current 50 Target 55 + 11%
Jul 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
-86% 453% -44% -12% 7%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-179% -96% -92% -93% -148%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4, 4, 3, 1, -24
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-263 -262 -235 -220 -226
Capital paid worsened , a 11% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
26, 27, 32, 33, 9
Jul 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
-86% 453% -44% -12% 7%
- Sales grew 7% in the fourth quarter to 31 billion rupiah, but -28% below our 43 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 101% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 39 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-179% -96% -92% -93% -148%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -148% profit from 0 to -75 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -107% now.
- We use the average -107% cost ratio to predict a -6 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4, 4, 3, 1, -24
- Free cashflow went from 1 to -24 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -2 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-263 -262 -235 -220 -226
- Cash increased 1.0 to 1.2 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 221 to 227 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -220 to -226 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 9 billion rupiah new liabilities payment net cash will be -235 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 11% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
26, 27, 32, 33, 9
- JSKY 20 quarter capital paid worsened 33 to 9 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -6 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be -0 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 102 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.27 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 150 billion rupiah which means a 0.7 X valuation. A 0.75 X valuation gives a 11% higher target price 55 rupiah.
