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JRPT expected to look sharper soon
JRPT Current 490 Target 777 + 59%
16 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -31%
Last 5 quarters
-47% 21% 5% 37% -31%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-78% -58% -62% -57% -64%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
44, 192, 225, 158, 99
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,597 -2,555 -2,813 -2,569 -3,048
Capital paid improved, a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,361, 1,440, 1,448, 1,830, 1,872
16 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -31%
Last 5 quarters
-47% 21% 5% 37% -31%
- Sales declined -31% in the fourth quarter to 482 billion rupiah -40% below our 800 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 13% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 726 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-78% -58% -62% -57% -64%
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -64% profit from 283 to 126 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -60% now.
- We use a lower -58% cost ratio to predict a 284 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
44, 192, 225, 158, 99
- Free cashflow went from 158 to 99 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with high -632 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 168 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -59 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 243 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,597 -2,555 -2,813 -2,569 -3,048
- Cash declined 1,059 to 546 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,628 to 3,594 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -2,569 to -3,048 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -110 billion rupiah equity payout -666.6645375 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,222 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,361, 1,440, 1,448, 1,830, 1,872
- JRPT 28 quarters capital paid improved 1,830 to 1,872 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -3 billion rupiah liabilities -38 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be 2,648 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,497 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.54 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 936 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 59% higher target price 777 rupiah.