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Picture

JRPT average cashflow negative

JRPT.jk Current 468 Target 412 -12%

12/18/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -12%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -51% of market cap
​
Sales grew 17%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
37% -31% 1% 7% 17%
696 ; 482 ; 487 ; 522 ; 610
  • Sales grew 17% in the third quarter to 610 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 8% now.
  • This brings the average to -1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 653 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
44% 24% 38% 38% 45%
283 ; 126 ; 179 ; 195 ; 263
  • The cash margin went from 38% to 45% profit from 195 to 263 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 36% now.
  • We use a 36% cash margin to predict a 229 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
180 ; 160 ; 356 ; 242 ; 204
-32 ; -632 ; -85 ; -39 ; -341
  • Free cashflow went from 203 to -138 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -341 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -34 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -155 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 76 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,059 ; 546 ; 774 ; 958 ; 532
3,628 ; 3,594 ; 3,735 ; 4,013 ; 3,699
  • Cash declined 958 to 532 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 4,013 to 3,699 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,055 to -3,167 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -305 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,862 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3 ; 3 ; 0 ; 1 ; -14
385 ; 38 ; 43 ; 18 ; 298
  • JRPT.jk paid 285 billion rupiah in the third quarter -14 billion rupiah liabilities 298 billion rupiah equity, will pay 305 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 6,240 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.49 X assets with a 40 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 305 billion rupiah which means a 20 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -12% lower target price 412 rupiah.
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