JPFA looking sharper as cashflow rises
JPFA Current 1,450 Target 2,958 + 104%
May 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-11% 5% -6% 13% 1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -91% -97% -93% -92%
Cashflow lower (but positive)
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
223, -1,994, -990, 900, 576
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,318 -16,557 -16,005 -14,401 -15,287
Capital paid improved , a 104% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,619, 191, -723, 127, 653
May 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-11% 5% -6% 13% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 12,154 billion rupiah 4% above our 11,712 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 13,383 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -91% -97% -93% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -92% profit from 515 to 647 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the average -93% cost ratio to predict a 575 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower (but positive)
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
223, -1,994, -990, 900, 576
- Free cashflow went from 900 to 576 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -320 billion rupiah investment spending .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -377 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -320 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 588 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,318 -16,557 -16,005 -14,401 -15,287
- Cash increased 1,085 to 1,140 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 15,486 to 16,427 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -14,401 to -15,287 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -225 billion rupiah equity payout -2,075 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -13,213 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 104% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,619, 191, -723, 127, 653
- JPFA 25 quarters capital paid improved 127 to 653 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -526 liabilities payment & will be 2,952 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,472 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.45 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,290 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 104% higher target price 2,958 rupiah.