JPFA cashflow negative again
JPFA Current 1,475 Target 2,020 + 37%
Aug 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
11,339 10,695 12,075 12,154 12,329
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -97% -93% -92% -94%
Cashflow negative, last 12 months -3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,994 -990 900 576 -858
Balance sheet net cash down, last 12 months change -12% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-16,557 -16,005 -14,401 -15,287 -18,181
Capital worsened, last 12 months -2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
191 -723 127 653 -135
Aug 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
11,339 10,695 12,075 12,154 12,329
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 12,329 billion rupiah -5% below) our 13,005 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 14,079 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -97% -93% -92% -94%
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -94% profit from 647 to 555 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use the average -94% cost ratio to predict a 654 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative, last 12 months -3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,994 -990 900 576 -858
- Free cashflow went from 576 to -858 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -380 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -93 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -350 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 427 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash down, last 12 months change -12% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-16,557 -16,005 -14,401 -15,287 -18,181
- Cash declined 1,140 to 1,098 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 16,427 to 19,279 billion rupiah so net cash down -15,287 to -18,181 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,706 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -16,436 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened, last 12 months -2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
191 -723 127 653 -135
- JPFA 26 quarters capital worsened 653 to -135 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1,512 billion rupiah from liabilities + 725 billion rupiah from equity but will be 1,572 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,704 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.41 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,706 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 37% higher target price 2,020 rupiah.
