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JPFA looking sharper as cashflow rises

JPFA Current 1,450 Target 2,958 + 104%

May 9, 2022
1 minute read

Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-11% 5% -6% 13% 1%
  • Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 12,154 billion rupiah 4% above our 11,712 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 13,383 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -91% -97% -93% -92%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -92% profit from 515 to 647 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
  • We use the average -93% cost ratio to predict a 575 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.

Cashflow lower (but positive)
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
223, -1,994, -990, 900, 576
  • Free cashflow went from 900 to 576 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -320 billion rupiah investment spending .
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -377 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -320 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 588 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
​
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,318 -16,557 -16,005 -14,401 -15,287
  • Cash increased 1,085 to 1,140 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 15,486 to 16,427 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -14,401 to -15,287 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -225 billion rupiah equity payout -2,075 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -13,213 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid improved , a 104% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,619, 191, -723, 127, 653
  • JPFA 25 quarters capital paid improved 127 to 653 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -526 liabilities payment & will be 2,952 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 13,472 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.45 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,290 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 104% higher target price 2,958 rupiah.
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