JIHD at 0.12X assets
JIHD Current 344 Target 551 + 60%
October 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 17%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% -17% 45% -3% 17%
226 187 272 264 308
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-135% -102% -75% -71% -93%
-108 -34 39 48 -7
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
16 -6 77 56 93
-14 5 -8 -38 -16
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
232 235 300 269 319
1,932 1,935 1,836 1,826 1,856
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
625 620 603 652 682
-7 -5 -17 4 1
0 0 0 45 29
October 5, 2022
1 minute read
- JIHD last 12 months sales growth 2X average + 36%
- JIHD last 12 months cash flow 5X average + 20% of market cap
- JIHD last 12 months Capital 7X average + 7% of market cap
- JIHD latest net cash -191% of market cap
Sales jumped 17%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% -17% 45% -3% 17%
226 187 272 264 308
- Sales jumped 17% in the second quarter to 308 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 0 now.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 382 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-135% -102% -75% -71% -93%
-108 -34 39 48 -7
- The cash cost ratio went from -71% to -93% profit from 48 to -7 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 28 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
16 -6 77 56 93
-14 5 -8 -38 -16
- Free cashflow went from 18 to 77 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 41 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 36 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
232 235 300 269 319
1,932 1,935 1,836 1,826 1,856
- Cash increased 269 to 319 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,826 to 1,856 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,557 to -1,537 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -27 billion rupiah equity -117 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,420 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
625 620 603 652 682
-7 -5 -17 4 1
0 0 0 45 29
- JIHD cumulative capital improved 652 to 682 billion rupiah with + 1 & + 29 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 825 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 806 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.12 X assets with a 44 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 143 billion rupiah (vs 163 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 60% higher target price 551 dollars.
