JAWA cashflow less negative
JAWA.jk Current 126 Target 102 -19%
11/29/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -24%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-32% 70% -10% 8% -24%
170 288 258 279 211
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-19% -12% -9% -3% -28%
-63 -66 -52 -37 -89
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-48 -19 -27 -67 -29
-25 -30 -29 -21 -27
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
9 13 4 11 1
3,341 3,343 3,430 3,437 3,507
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-56 -56 -47 -95 -47
0 0 0 0 0
11/29/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 24%
- Last 12 months cash flow -52% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -51% of market cap
- Latest net cash -737% of market cap
Sales declined -24%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-32% 70% -10% 8% -24%
170 288 258 279 211
- Sales declined -24% in the third quarter to 211 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 247 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-19% -12% -9% -3% -28%
-63 -66 -52 -37 -89
- The cash margin went from -3% to -28% profit from -37 to -89 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at -13% now.
- We use a -9% cash margin to predict a -51 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-48 -19 -27 -67 -29
-25 -30 -29 -21 -27
- Free cashflow went from -87 to -56 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -27 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -62 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -12 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -33 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
9 13 4 11 1
3,341 3,343 3,430 3,437 3,507
- Cash declined 11 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,437 to 3,507 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,426 to -3,506 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 133 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,639 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-56 -56 -47 -95 -47
0 0 0 0 0
- JAWA.jk (raised) -47 billion rupiah in the third quarter -47 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will raise -133 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 476 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a -28 years payback & a 0% yield.
- With negative cashflow, our sales forecast is 965 billion rupiah which means a 0.5 X valuation. A 0.4 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 102 rupiah.