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Picture

JAWA cashflow less negative

JAWA.jk Current 126 Target 102 -19%

11/29/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 24%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -52% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -51% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -737% of market cap
​
Sales declined -24%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-32% 70% -10% 8% -24%
170 288 258 279 211
  • Sales declined -24% in the third quarter to 211 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 11% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 247 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-19% -12% -9% -3% -28%
-63 -66 -52 -37 -89
  • The cash margin went from -3% to -28% profit from -37 to -89 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -13% now.
  • We use a -9% cash margin to predict a -51 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-48 -19 -27 -67 -29
-25 -30 -29 -21 -27
  • Free cashflow went from -87 to -56 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -27 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -62 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -12 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -33 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
9 13 4 11 1
3,341 3,343 3,430 3,437 3,507
  • Cash declined 11 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 3,437 to 3,507 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,426 to -3,506 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 133 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,639 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-56 -56 -47 -95 -47
0 0 0 0 0
  • JAWA.jk (raised) -47 billion rupiah in the third quarter -47 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will raise -133 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 476 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a -28 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • With negative cashflow, our sales forecast is 965 billion rupiah which means a 0.5 X valuation. A 0.4 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 102 rupiah.
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