JAWA still negative cashflow
JAWA Current 137 Target 141 + 3%
Aug 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
84% -32% 70% -10% 8%
250 170 288 258 279
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -119% -112% -109% -103%
-5 -63 -66 -52 -37
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-4 -48 -19 -27 -67
-19 -25 -30 -29 -21
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
20 9 13 4 11
3,333 3,341 3,343 3,430 3,437
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,352 -1,414 -1,467 -1,514 -1,609
0 0 0 -47 -95
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 22, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -51% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -191% of market cap
- Latest net cash -662% of market cap
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
84% -32% 70% -10% 8%
250 170 288 258 279
- Sales grew 8% in the second quarter to 279 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -4% now.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 326 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -119% -112% -109% -103%
-5 -63 -66 -52 -37
- The cash cost ratio went from -109% to -103% profit from -52 to -37 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -111% now.
- We use the latest -103% cost ratio to predict a -39 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-4 -48 -19 -27 -67
-19 -25 -30 -29 -21
- Free cashflow went from -56 to -87 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -21 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -66 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -11 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
20 9 13 4 11
3,333 3,341 3,343 3,430 3,437
- Cash increased 4 to 11 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,430 to 3,437 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,426 to -3,426 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 43 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,469 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,352 -1,414 -1,467 -1,514 -1,609
0 0 0 -47 -95
0 0 0 0 0
- JAWA cumulative capital worsened -1,514 to -1,609 billion rupiah with -95 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,652 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 517 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.15 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 1,236 billion rupiah which means a 0.42 X valuation. A 0.43 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 141 rupiah.
