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ITMG looking sharp at 2X cashflow forecast
ITMG Current 28,900 Target 74,343 + 157%
May 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -54%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 38% 65% 116% -54%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-71% -70% -68% -82% -61%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters $m
46, 130, 119, 278, 171
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters $m
-42, -18, 38, 226, -57
Capital paid worsened , a 157% higher target price
Last 5 quarters $m
743, 760, 760, 857, 798
May 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -54%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 38% 65% 116% -54%
- Sales declined -54% in the first quarter to 640 million dollars -54% lower vs our 1,386 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 41% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 918 million dollars in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-71% -70% -68% -82% -61%
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -61% profit from 204 to 213 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -71% now.
- We use the average -71% cost ratio to predict a 236 million dollars profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters $m
46, 130, 119, 278, 171
- Free cashflow went from 278 to 171 million dollars in the first quarter with -13 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 175 million dollars now.
- We assume -13 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 258 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters $m
-42, -18, 38, 226, -57
- Cash declined 691 to 691 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 465 to 748 million dollars so net cash worsened 226 to -57 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -618 million dollars equity payout -127 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be 295 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 157% higher target price
Last 5 quarters $m
743, 760, 760, 857, 798
- ITMG capital from the last 25 quarters worsened 857 to 798 million dollars in the third quarter with 60 million dollars new equity but will be 1,542 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,958 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.93 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 32% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 970 million dollars which means an 2 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 157% higher target price 74,343 rupiah.