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Picture

ITMG.jk Capital paid higher

Picture
Current 35,575 Target 51,165 + 44%

Feb 23, 2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth -20%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 48% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 19% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities 29% of market cap

Sales declined -15%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
116% -54% 25% 64% -15%
19,992 ; 9,168 ; 11,458 ; 18,760 ; 16,014 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -15% in the fourth quarter to 16,014 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 5% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,347 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
18% 39% 36% 40% 35%
2,911 ; 3,055 ; 3,628 ; 6,805 ; 4,789 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 40% to 35% net profit from 6,805 to 4,789 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 37% now.
  • We use a 34% cash profit margin to predict a 2,163 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,018 ; 2,635 ; 2,117 ; 7,282 ; 8,368 billion rupiah
-44 ; -182 ; -217 ; -196 ; -487 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 7,086 to 7,881 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -487 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 4,830 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -270 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 2,409 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
9,864 ; 13,209 ; 11,845 ; 19,647 ; 22,451 billion rupiah
6,638 ; 10,717 ; 7,213 ; 8,669 ; 10,833 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 19,647 to 22,451 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 8,669 to 10,833 billion rupiah so net cash was up 10,978 to 11,618 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -8,174 billion rupiah equity payout -1,461 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 13,079 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital paid increased
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
55 ; 0 ; 73 ; 79 ; 393 billion rupiah
1,338 ; -858 ; 3,428 ; 2 ; 4,647 billion rupiah
  • ITMG.jk paid 5,040 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 393 billion rupiah liabilities 4,647 billion rupiah equity, will pay 9,635 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 40,197 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.01 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 20% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 9,635 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price 51,165 rupiah.
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