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Picture
ISSP.jk Cashflow more negative

Current 246 Target 226 -8%

1/2/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth 0%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -33% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -34% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -194% of market cap
​
Sales grew seasonally 46%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
45% -4% 29% -45% 46%
1,624 ; 1,564 ; 2,012 ; 1,116 ; 1,624 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew seasonally 46% in the third quarter to 1,624 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -1% now.
  • This brings the average to 6% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,848 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
14% 5% 7% 9% 8%
191 ; 41 ; 120 ; 70 ; 102 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 9% to 8% profit from 70 to 102 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 7% now.
  • We use a 7% cash margin to predict a 105 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-231 ; -45 ; -160 ; 77 ; -280 billion rupiah
-29 ; 7 ; -46 ; -66 ; -58 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 12 to -339 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -58 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -143 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -58 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 66 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
54 ; 50 ; 28 ; 22 ; 68 billion rupiah
3,085 ; 3,310 ; 3,307 ; 3,240 ; 3,448 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 22 to 68 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 3,240 to 3,448 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,218 to -3,380 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -266 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,114 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-277 ; -76 ; -184 ; 18 ; -451 billion rupiah
0 ; 42 ; 0 ; 0 ; 66 billion rupiah
  • ISSP.jk (raised) -385 billion rupiah in the third quarter -451 billion rupiah liabilities 66 billion rupiah equity, will pay 266 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 1,738 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.23 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 266 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a -8% lower target price 226 rupiah.
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