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ISSP dull with negative cashflow
ISSP Current 316 Target 394 + 25%
Jun 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 29%
Last 5 quarters
1% 5% 45% -4% 29%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -84% -86% -95% -93%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
447, -199, -260, -38, -206
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,284 -2,668 -3,031 -3,260 -3,279
Capital paid worsened a 25% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
721, 524, 246, 213, 29
Jun 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 29%
Last 5 quarters
1% 5% 45% -4% 29%
- Sales jumped 29% in the first quarter to 2,012 billion rupiah 28% above our 1,575 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,186 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -84% -86% -95% -93%
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -93% profit from 41 to 120 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the average -90% cost ratio to predict a 201 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
447, -199, -260, -38, -206
- Free cashflow went more negative from -38 to -206 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -46 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -176 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -46 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 180 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,284 -2,668 -3,031 -3,260 -3,279
- Cash declined 50 to 28 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,310 to 3,307 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,260 to -3,279 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -156 billion rupiah equity payout -551 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,728 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened a 25% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
721, 524, 246, 213, 29
- ISSP 17 quarter capital paid worsened 213 to 29 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 184 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 736 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,233 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.31 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 697 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 25% higher target price 394 rupiah.