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ISAT suddenly looking very sharp as sales surge
ISAT Current 7,000 Target 11,435 + 63%
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 30%
Last 5 quarters
0% 4% 6% 3% 30%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-63% -68% -73% -57% -68%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
133, 6,907, 1,347, 544, 1,824
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-47,863 -40,933 -40,013 -49,007 -70,178
Capital paid improved , a 63% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,197, 5,897, 7,110, 13,789, 14,349
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 30%
Last 5 quarters
0% 4% 6% 3% 30%
- Sales soared 30% in the first quarter to 10,873 billion rupiah 33% above our 8,167 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,754 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-63% -68% -73% -57% -68%
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -68% profit from 994 to 164 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -67% now.
- We use the average -67% cost ratio to predict a 622 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
133, 6,907, 1,347, 544, 1,824
- Free cashflow went from -544 to 1,824 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -1,071 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,383 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -1,071 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,350 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-47,863 -40,933 -40,013 -49,007 -70,178
- Cash declined 4,087 to 3,851 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 53,094 to 74,029 billion rupiah with new leases so net cash worsened -49,007 to -70,178 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -693 billion rupiah equity payout -8,527 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -59,604 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 63% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,197, 5,897, 7,110, 13,789, 14,349
- ISAT 33 quarter capital paid improved 13,789 to 14,349 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -559 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 21,521 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 56,439 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.61 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 9,220 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 63% higher target price 11,435 rupiah.