ISAT lower investment spending
ISAT Current 6,775 Target 8,911 + 32%
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,639 8,071 8,333 10,873 8,664
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-68% -73% -57% -68% -63%
Cashflow lower, last 12 months + 7% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,907 1,347 -544 1,824 1,359
Balance sheet net cash improved, change last 12 months -48% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-40,933 -40,013 -49,007 -70,178 -67,343
Capital worsened, last 12 months + 15% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,897 7,110 13,789 14,349 14,011
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,639 8,071 8,333 10,873 8,664
- Sales declined -20% in the second quarter to 8,664 billion rupiah -22% below our 11,090 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9,673 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-68% -73% -57% -68% -63%
- The cash cost ratio went from -68% to -63% profit from 164 to 3,403 billion rupiah in the second quarter with a large non cash gain.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the average -65% cost ratio to predict a 552 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower, last 12 months + 7% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,907 1,347 -544 1,824 1,359
- Free cashflow went from 1,824 to 1,359 billion rupiah in the second quarter with lower investment spending -214 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 996 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -643 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,796 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash improved, change last 12 months -48% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-40,933 -40,013 -49,007 -70,178 -67,343
- Cash increased 3,851 to 6,813 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 74,029 to 74,156 billion rupiah so net cash improved -70,178 to -67,343 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -647 billion rupiah equity payout -6,537 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -57,133 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened, last 12 months + 15% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,897 7,110 13,789 14,349 14,011
- ISAT 34 quarter cumulative capital worsened 14,349 to 14,011 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -378 billion rupiah from liabilities + 41 billion rupiah from equity but will be 21,196 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 54,625 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.57 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 7,184 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 32% higher target price 8,911 rupiah.
