ISAT big sales growth
ISAT Current 6,350 Target 11,059 + 74%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Sales soared 73%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% 3% 30% -20% 73%
8,071 8,333 10,873 8,664 14,994
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-73% -57% -68% -63% -75%
225 994 164 3,403 475
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
3,264 2,050 2,895 1,572 5,216
-1,917 -2,594 -1,071 -214 -2,624
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
11,016 4,087 3,851 6,813 4,590
51,029 53,094 74,029 74,156 74,207
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
7,110 13,789 14,349 14,011 18,902
1,194 -2,840 559 -378 2,891
19 9,519 0 41 2,000
10/31/22
1 minute read
- ISAT last 12 months sales growth + 86%
- ISAT last 12 months cash flow + 10% of market cap
- ISAT last 12 months Capital + 23% of market cap
- ISAT latest net cash -136% of market cap
Sales soared 73%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% 3% 30% -20% 73%
8,071 8,333 10,873 8,664 14,994
- Sales soared 73% in the third quarter to 14,994 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -6% now.
- This brings the average to 22% growth.
- We predict average growth of -3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 12,998 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-73% -57% -68% -63% -75%
225 994 164 3,403 475
- The cash cost ratio went from -63% to -75% profit from 3,403 to 475 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use a -66% cost ratio to predict a 1,129 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
3,264 2,050 2,895 1,572 5,216
-1,917 -2,594 -1,071 -214 -2,624
- Free cashflow went from 1,359 to 2,592 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2,624 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,308 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,303 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 2,027 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
11,016 4,087 3,851 6,813 4,590
51,029 53,094 74,029 74,156 74,207
- Cash declined 6,813 to 4,590 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 74,156 to 74,207 billion rupiah so net cash was down -67,343 to -69,617 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,263 billion rupiah equity payout -6,843 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -58,527 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
7,110 13,789 14,349 14,011 18,902
1,194 -2,840 559 -378 2,891
19 9,519 0 41 2,000
- ISAT cumulative capital improved 14,011 to 18,902 billion rupiah with + 2,891 & + 2,000 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 27,008 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 51,198 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.54 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 8,106 billion rupiah (vs 5,230 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 6 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 74% higher target price 11,059 rupiah.
