IPTV cashflow lower, positive
IPTV.jk Current 67 Target 63 -6%
12/8/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -16%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-17% -7% -15% 12% -16%
874 ; 815 ; 689 ; 772 ; 650
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
29% 18% 31% 39% 9%
93 ; -64 ; 17 ; 95 ; -83
Cashflow lower but positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
339 ; -253 ; 229 ; 175 ; 298
-484 ; -155 ; -139 ; -32 ; -182
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
101 ; 28 ; 55 ; 14 ; 15
3,658 ; 4,177 ; 3,379 ; 3,372 ; 3,215
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
80 ; -321 ; 64 ; 184 ; 114
-277 ; -7 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
12/8/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -26%
- Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -113% of market cap
Sales declined -16%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-17% -7% -15% 12% -16%
874 ; 815 ; 689 ; 772 ; 650
- Sales declined -16% in the third quarter to 650 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 11% now.
- This brings the average to -7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 770 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
29% 18% 31% 39% 9%
93 ; -64 ; 17 ; 95 ; -83
- The cash margin went from 39% to 9% profit from 95 to -83 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 24% now.
- We use a 24% cash margin to predict a 6 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower but positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
339 ; -253 ; 229 ; 175 ; 298
-484 ; -155 ; -139 ; -32 ; -182
- Free cashflow went from 144 to 115 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -182 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -15 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -118 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 61 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
101 ; 28 ; 55 ; 14 ; 15
3,658 ; 4,177 ; 3,379 ; 3,372 ; 3,215
- Cash increased 14 to 15 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,372 to 3,215 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,358 to -3,200 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1 billion rupiah equity payout -241 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,959 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
80 ; -321 ; 64 ; 184 ; 114
-277 ; -7 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
- IPTV.jk paid 114 billion rupiah in the third quarter 114 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 242 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 2,827 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 45 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 242 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a -6% lower target price 63 rupiah.