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Picture

IPOL negative cashflow reverses

IPOL.jk Current 149 Target 164 + 10%

12/16/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 3%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -8% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -155% of market cap

Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% 6% -5% -1% 3%
860 ; 914 ; 864 ; 858 ; 884
  • Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 884 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
  • This brings the average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 926 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
8% 8% 8% 6% 7%
30 ; 34 ; 33 ; 13 ; 20
  • The cash margin went from 6% to 7% profit from 13 to 20 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 7% now.
  • We use a 7% cash margin to predict a 25 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
72 ; 81 ; -181 ; 0 ; 171
-107 ; -69 ; 9 ; -44 ; -41
  • Free cashflow went from -44 to 130 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -41 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -18 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -41 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 24 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
272 ; 286 ; 272 ; 279 ; 220
1,562 ; 1,642 ; 1,719 ; 1,803 ; 1,712
  • Cash declined 279 to 220 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 1,803 to 1,712 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,525 to -1,492 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -96 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,396 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
30 ; 0 ; -155 ; -25 ; 181
0 ; -0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 39
  • IPOL.jk paid 220 billion rupiah in the third quarter 181 billion rupiah liabilities 39 billion rupiah equity, will pay 96 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 960 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.21 X assets with a 44 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 96 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 10% higher target price 164 rupiah.
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