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IPOL, a -3% lower target price
Current 177 Target 171 -3%
December 3rd 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Costs 1 point higher
Cashflow less negative
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a -3% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 60.0 million dollars vs our 64.9 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 64.9 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022
Costs 1 point higher
- The cash cost ratio was 1 point higher at -92% in the third quarter giving a lower 2.7 to 2.1 million dollars net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use -92% cost ratio to predict a 2.5 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow less negative
- Free cashflow was less negative at -2.5 million dollars in the third quarter with much higher -7.5 million dollars of investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4.9 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -2.9 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 2.2 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 24 to 19 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 112 to 109 million dollars so net cash worsened from -88 to -90 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2.8 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -85 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -3% lower target price
- IPOL capital from the last 23 quarters increased to 23.3 million dollars in the third quarter with a -2.1 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 31.2 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 81.5 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.28 X assets with a 34 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 7.9 million dollars which means an 10.3 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -3% lower target price of 171 rupiah.