IPOL less negative cashflow
IPOL Current 158 Target 138 -13%
September 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
5% 2% 7% -6% -3%
59 60 64 60 59
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-91% -92% -92% -92% -94%
3 2 2 2 1
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-4 5 6 -13 0
-1 -8 -5 1 -3
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
24 19 20 19 19
112 109 115 120 123
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
21 23 23 12 11
-5 2 0 -11 -2
2 0 -0 0 0
September 24, 2022
1 minute read
- IPOL last 12 months sales growth -1%
- IPOL last 12 months cash flow -24% of market cap
- IPOL last 12 months Capital -15% of market cap
- IPOL latest net cash -148% of market cap
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
5% 2% 7% -6% -3%
59 60 64 60 59
- Sales declined -3% in the second quarter to 59 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 62.6 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-91% -92% -92% -92% -94%
3 2 2 2 1
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -94% profit from 2 to 1 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the average -92% cost ratio to predict a 2.0 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-4 5 6 -13 0
-1 -8 -5 1 -3
- Free cashflow went from -12 to -3 million dollars in the second quarter with -3 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4 million dollars now.
- We assume -2.4 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2.4 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
24 19 20 19 19
112 109 115 120 123
- Cash was flat at 19 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 120 to 123 million dollars so net cash was down -101 to -104 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0.0 million dollars equity -9.4 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -95 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
21 23 23 12 11
-5 2 0 -11 -2
2 0 -0 0 0
- IPOL cumulative capital worsened 12 to 11 million dollars with -2 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 20.2 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 70.2 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.23 X assets with a 30 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 9.4 million dollars (vs -16.6 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 7.5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a -13% lower target price 138 rupiah.
