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IPCM, looking sharp with a 12% yield forecast
IPCM Current 286 Target 551 + 93%
May 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -3%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 13% -1% 6% -3%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-73% -79% -81% -61% -75%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-51, 23, 77, 103, 61
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
286, 226, 274, 384, 401
Capital paid flat , a 93% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
391 391 445 463 463
May 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -3%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 13% -1% 6% -3%
- Sales declined seasonally -3% in the first quarter to 213 billion rupiah -1% below our 216 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 237 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-73% -79% -81% -61% -75%
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -75% profit from 46 to 38 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use the average -74% cost ratio to predict a 46 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-51, 23, 77, 103, 61
- Free cashflow went from 103 to 61 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 66 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 62 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
286, 226, 274, 384, 401
- Cash increased 656 to 716 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 272 to 315 billion rupiah so net cash improved 384 to 401 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -179 billion rupiah equity payout -58 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 465 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat , a 93% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
391 391 445 463 463
- IPCM 25 quarter capital paid was flat at 463 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 700 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,509 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.04 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 12% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 242 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 93% higher target price 551 rupiah.