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IPCM sharp with a 5% yield forecast
IPCM Current 286 Target 474 + 66%
Jul 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
13% -1% 6% -3% 1%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-79% -81% -61% -75% -86%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
23 77 103 61 -47
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
226 274 384 401 272
Cumulative capital paid flat , a 66% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
391 445 463 463 463
Jul 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
13% -1% 6% -3% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 215 billion rupiah -2% below our 219 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 235 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-79% -81% -61% -75% -86%
- The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -86% profit from 38 to 27 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the latest -75% cost ratio to predict a 42 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
23 77 103 61 -47
- Free cashflow went negative from 61 to -47 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 48 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -3 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
226 274 384 401 272
- Cash declined 716 to 670 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 315 to 398 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 401 to 272 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -79 billion rupiah equity payout -70 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 402 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Cumulative capital paid flat , a 66% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
391 445 463 463 463
- IPCM 26 quarter cumulative capital paid was flat at 463 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 0 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity but will be 612 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,509 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.98 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 208 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 66% higher target price 474 rupiah.
