IPCM 11% yield forecast
IPCM.jk Current 282 Target 543 + 93%
11/16/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-1% 6% -3% 1% 13%
207, 220, 213, 215, 243
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -61% -75% -86% -75%
30 46 38 27 37
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
89 91 61 -40 -2
-12 12 0 -7 0
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
571 656 716 670 577
297 272 315 398 361
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
54 18 0 0 91
11/16/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 17%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
- Latest net cash 15% of market cap
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-1% 6% -3% 1% 13%
207, 220, 213, 215, 243
- Sales grew 13% in the third quarter to 243 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 267 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -61% -75% -86% -75%
30 46 38 27 37
- The cash cost ratio went from -86% to -75% profit from 27 to 37 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use a -75% cost ratio to predict a 52 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
89 91 61 -40 -2
-12 12 0 -7 0
- Free cashflow went from -47 to -2 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 29 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 60 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
571 656 716 670 577
297 272 315 398 361
- Cash declined 670 to 577 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 398 to 361 billion rupiah so net cash was down 272 to 216 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -157 billion rupiah equity payout -67 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 298 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
54 18 0 0 91
- IPCM.jk paid 91 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 91 billion rupiah equity & will pay 224 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 1,488 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.99 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 11% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 239 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 93% higher target price 543 rupiah.
