IPCC 10% yield forecast
IPCC Current 585 Target 1,258 + 115%
11/14/2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 35%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% 48% -11% 2% 35%
115 169 150 152 206
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-76% -59% -60% -77% -58%
2 44 35 10 64
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
40 108 68 13 109
-12 -20 -5 -11 -12
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
706 769 833 835 890
859 898 919 896 950
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-404 -392 -392 -392 -350
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 42
11/14/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 80%
- Last 12 months cash flow -4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- Latest net cash -6% of market cap
Sales jumped 35%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% 48% -11% 2% 35%
115 169 150 152 206
- Sales jumped 35% in the third quarter to 206 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 14% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 228 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-76% -59% -60% -77% -58%
2 44 35 10 64
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -58% profit from 10 to 64 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
- We use a -63% cost ratio to predict a 61 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
40 108 68 13 109
-12 -20 -5 -11 -12
- Free cashflow went from 2 to 97 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -12 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 63 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -9 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 71 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
706 769 833 835 890
859 898 919 896 950
- Cash increased 835 to 890 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 896 to 950 billion rupiah so net cash was up -61 to -60 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -104 billion rupiah equity payout -176 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be positive 122 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-404 -392 -392 -392 -350
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 42
- IPCC capital improved -392 to -350 billion rupiah with 0 & + 42 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -70 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,064 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.52 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 10% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 286 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. An 8 X valuation gives a 115% higher target price 1,258 rupiah.
