IP 6% yield forecast
Current 38 Target 53 + 41%
2/1/2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
4% 3% 3% 0% -5%
5,086 ; 5,237 ; 5,389 ; 5,402 ; 5,133 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
2% 7% 9% 18% -6%
107 ; 360 ; 511 ; 951 ; -318 million dollars
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
107 ; 588 ; 390 ; 435 ; 761 million dollars
-130 ; -180 ; -37 ; -76 ; -315 million dollars
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,295 ; 1,031 ; 826 ; 511 ; 804 million dollars
16,161 ; 16,271 ; 16,239 ; 15,377 ; 15,443 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,709 ; -19 ; 78 ; 234 ; -196 million dollars
592 ; 602 ; 565 ; 435 ; 355 million dollars
Current 38 Target 53 + 41%
2/1/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 1%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 12% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 15% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -109% of market cap
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
4% 3% 3% 0% -5%
5,086 ; 5,237 ; 5,389 ; 5,402 ; 5,133 million dollars
- Sales declined -5% in the fourth quarter to 5,133 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 951% now.
- This brings the quarterly average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,393 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
2% 7% 9% 18% -6%
107 ; 360 ; 511 ; 951 ; -318 million dollars
- The net profit margin went from 18% to -6% profit from 951 to -318 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 7% now.
- We use a 6% net profit margin to predict a 324 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
107 ; 588 ; 390 ; 435 ; 761 million dollars
-130 ; -180 ; -37 ; -76 ; -315 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 359 to 446 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -315 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 392 million dollars now.
- We assume -152 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 364 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,295 ; 1,031 ; 826 ; 511 ; 804 million dollars
16,161 ; 16,271 ; 16,239 ; 15,377 ; 15,443 million dollars
- Cash increased 511 to 804 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 15,377 to 15,443 million dollars so net cash was up -14,866 to -14,639 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -749 million dollars equity payout -706 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -13,933 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,709 ; -19 ; 78 ; 234 ; -196 million dollars
592 ; 602 ; 565 ; 435 ; 355 million dollars
- IP paid 159 million dollars in the fourth quarter -196 million dollars liabilities 355 million dollars equity, will pay 1,455 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 13,441 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.57 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 6% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,455 million dollars which means a 9 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 41% higher target price 53 dollars.