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INTP looking much less sharp with negative cashflow
INTP Current 10,475 Target 16,072 + 53%
May 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -15%
Last 5 quarters
-15% -6% 22% 6% -15%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -83% -76% -79% -86%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
252, 201, 635, 937, -253
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,125, 3,484, 2,111, 626, 206
Capital paid improved , a 53% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
17,487 17,546 19,426 21,037 21,373
May 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -15%
Last 5 quarters
-15% -6% 22% 6% -15%
- Sales declined seasonally -15% in the first quarter to 3,558 billion rupiah -5% below our 3,747 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,789 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -83% -76% -79% -86%
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -86% profit from 580 to 183 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use a -80% cost ratio to predict a 469 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
252, 201, 635, 937, -253
- Free cashflow went negative from 937 to -253 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -243 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 380 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -192 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 531 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,125, 3,484, 2,111, 626, 206
- Cash declined 6,141 to 5,563 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 5,515 to 5,357 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 626 to 206 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,947 billion rupiah equity payout -3,384 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 649 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 53% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
17,487 17,546 19,426 21,037 21,373
- INTP 29 quarter capital paid improved 21,037 to 21,373 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -281 billion rupiah equity payment & will be 23,764 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 37,184 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.46 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,194 billion rupiah which means an 17 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 53% higher target price 16,072 rupiah.