INTP sales jump
INTP Current 9,275 Target 14,182 + 53%
11/1/22
1 minute read
Sales jumped 42%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
22% 6% -15% -6% 42%
3,942 4,163 3,558 3,353 4,750
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-75% -77% -86% -87% -80%
622 580 183 109 655
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
700 1,269 -59 17 836
-110 -374 -243 -159 -146
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
6,818 6,141 5,563 3,144 3,548
4,707 5,515 5,357 5,132 5,787
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
19,047 20,611 20,892 23,201 23,503
0 0 0 0 0
1,840 1,564 281 2,309 302
11/1/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months Sales growth + 21%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 14% of market cap
- Latest net cash -7% of market cap
Sales jumped 42%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
22% 6% -15% -6% 42%
3,942 4,163 3,558 3,353 4,750
- Sales jumped 42% in the third quarter to 4,750 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of -1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,408 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-75% -77% -86% -87% -80%
622 580 183 109 655
- The cash cost ratio went from -87% to -80% profit from 109 to 655 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -80% cost ratio to predict a 1,203 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
700 1,269 -59 17 836
-110 -374 -243 -159 -146
- Free cashflow went positive again from -142 to 690 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -146 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 285 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -146 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 722 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
6,818 6,141 5,563 3,144 3,548
4,707 5,515 5,357 5,132 5,787
- Cash increased 3,144 to 3,548 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,132 to 5,787 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,988 to -2,239 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,412 billion rupiah equity payout -1,073 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -761 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
19,047 20,611 20,892 23,201 23,503
0 0 0 0 0
1,840 1,564 281 2,309 302
- INTP cumulative capital improved 23,201 to 23,503 billion rupiah with 0 & + 302 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 25,988 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 32,127 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.20 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,890 billion rupiah which means an 11 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 53% higher target price 14,182 rupiah.
