INTP net cash negative
INTP Current 9,500 Target 10,874 + 14%
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-6% 22% 6% -15% -6%
3,229 3,942 4,163 3,558 3,353
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-83% -75% -77% -86% -87%
235 622 580 183 109
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
202 700 1,269 -59 17
-41 -110 -374 -243 -159
Net cash negative
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
8,078 6,818 6,141 5,563 3,144
4,594 4,707 5,515 5,357 5,132
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
17,207 19,047 20,611 20,892 23,201
0 0 0 0 0
0 1,840 1,564 281 2,309
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 18% of market cap
- Latest net cash -6% of market cap
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-6% 22% 6% -15% -6%
3,229 3,942 4,163 3,558 3,353
- Sales declined -6% in the second quarter to 3,353 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 0% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,618 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-83% -75% -77% -86% -87%
235 622 580 183 109
- The cash cost ratio went from -86% to -87% profit from 183 to 109 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the average -81% cost ratio to predict a 1,005 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
202 700 1,269 -59 17
-41 -110 -374 -243 -159
- Free cashflow went from -302 to -142 million dollars in the second quarter with -159 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 260 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -159 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 564 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash negative
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
8,078 6,818 6,141 5,563 3,144
4,594 4,707 5,515 5,357 5,132
- Cash declined 5,563 to 3,144 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 5,357 to 5,132 million dollars so net cash was down 206 to -1,988 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,263 million dollars equity payout -925 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -996 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
17,207 19,047 20,611 20,892 23,201
0 0 0 0 0
0 1,840 1,564 281 2,309
- INTP cumulative capital improved 20,892 to 23,201 million dollars with 0 & + 2,309 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 25,390 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 33,490 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.31 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,255 million dollars which means a 15 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 14% higher target price 10,874 rupiah.
