INKP cashflow negative
INKP Current 8,850 Target 11,676 + 32%
5 Sep 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 7% 15% -1% -5%
826 880 1,010 996 945
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -80% -80% -75% -70%
144 108 136 176 219
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
416 229 -9 115 -21
-100 -25 -118 -31 -40
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
796 967 1,059 1,283 991
3,941 3,998 4,220 4,408 4,127
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
580 618 405 267 500
282 20 -213 -138 232
0 18 0 0 1
5 Sep 2022
1 minute read
- INKP last 12 months sales growth + 14%
- INKP last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- INKP last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
- INKP latest net cash -94% of market cap
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 7% 15% -1% -5%
826 880 1,010 996 945
- Sales declined -5% in the second quarter to 945 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -5% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 962 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -80% -80% -75% -70%
144 108 136 176 219
- The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -70% profit from 176 to 219 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the average -76% cost ratio to predict a 162 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
416 229 -9 115 -21
-100 -25 -118 -31 -40
- Free cashflow went negative from 84 to -61 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -40 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 25 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -78 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 157 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
796 967 1,059 1,283 991
3,941 3,998 4,220 4,408 4,127
- Cash declined 1,283 to 991 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,408 to 4,127 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,125 to -3,136 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -67 billion rupiah equity payout -562 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,574 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
580 618 405 267 500
282 20 -213 -138 232
0 18 0 0 1
- INKP cumulative capital improved 267 to 500 billion rupiah with + 232 & + 1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,129 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,339 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.36 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 629 billion rupiah (vs 121 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 32% higher target price 11,676 rupiah.
