INKP cashflow turns positive
INKP.jk Current 9,700 Target 10,079 + 4%
11/23/2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 14% -1% -3% 20%
12,603 14,415 14,265 13,858 16,602
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-74% -101% -85% -102% -90%
1,547 1,944 2,527 3,208 3,956
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,281 -128 1,642 -311 1,558
-357 -1,683 -441 -583 -239
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
13,855 15,117 18,382 14,528 17,715
57,283 60,241 63,153 60,502 63,982
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
283 -3,046 -1,979 3,398 -1,107
262 3 0 19 265
11/23/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 32%
- Last 12 months cash flow -0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -5% of market cap
- Latest net cash -87% of market cap
Sales jumped 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 14% -1% -3% 20%
12,603 14,415 14,265 13,858 16,602
- Sales jumped 20% in the third quarter to 16,602 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -4% now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 17,613 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-74% -101% -85% -102% -90%
1,547 1,944 2,527 3,208 3,956
- The cash cost ratio went from -102% to -90% profit from 3,208 to 3,956 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use a -90% cost ratio to predict a 785 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,281 -128 1,642 -311 1,558
-357 -1,683 -441 -583 -239
- Free cashflow went positive from -894 to 1,319 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -239 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -46 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -737 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 985 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
13,855 15,117 18,382 14,528 17,715
57,283 60,241 63,153 60,502 63,982
- Cash increased 14,528 to 17,715 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 60,502 to 63,982 billion rupiah so net cash was down -45,974 to -46,267 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -11,868 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -42,328 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
283 -3,046 -1,979 3,398 -1,107
262 3 0 19 265
- INKP.jk (raised) -842 billion rupiah in the third quarter -1,107 billion rupiah liabilities +265 billion rupiah equity but will pay 11,868 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 53,069 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.38 X assets with a 42 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,939 billion rupiah which means a 13 X valuation. A 14 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 10,079 rupiah.
