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INDY looking sharp with a 13% yield forecast
INDY Current 2,560 Target 5,766 + 125%
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters
8% 21% 23% 5% -9%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -86% -97% -85% -84%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-25, 65, 189, 209, 89
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,121 -2,091 -2,080 -1,850 -1,903
Capital raised worsened , a 125% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-220 -195 -139 -140 -188
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters
8% 21% 23% 5% -9%
- Sales declined seasonally -9% in the first quarter to 831 million dollars -7% below our 889 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 969 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -86% -97% -85% -84%
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -84% profit from 71 to 85 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -88% now.
- We use the latest -84% cost ratio to predict a 107 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-25, 65, 189, 209, 89
- Free cashflow went from 209 to 89 million dollars in the first quarter with -84 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 138 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -18 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 137 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,121 -2,091 -2,080 -1,850 -1,903
- Cash increased 958 to 1,095 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,808 to 2,998 million dollars so net cash worsened -1,850 to -1,903 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -125 million dollars equity payout -410 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,493 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a 125% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-220 -195 -139 -140 -188
- INDY 25 quarter capital raised worsened -140 to -188 million dollars in the first quarter with 11 million dollars new liabilities 37 million dollars new equity & will be 348 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 951 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.25 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 536 million dollars which means an 2 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 125% higher target price 5,766 rupiah.