INDY at 2X cashflow
INDY.jk Current 2,890 Target 5,670 + 96%
12/3/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 5% -9% 36% 15%
12,434 13,039 11,906 16,243 18,758
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
3% 15% 16% 17% 17%
-534 1,019 1,218 2,104 2,481
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,420 2,412 2,474 -205 6,836
-706 568 -1,206 -355 2,197
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
10,745 13,677 15,684 13,604 17,197
40,548 40,084 42,948 41,092 38,462
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
735 -210 -158 336 5,184
77 193 -530 66 1,195
12/3/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 51%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 85% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 40% of market cap
- Latest net cash -141% of market cap
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 5% -9% 36% 15%
12,434 13,039 11,906 16,243 18,758
- Sales grew 15% in the third quarter to 18,758 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 19,512 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
3% 15% 16% 17% 17%
-534 1,019 1,218 2,104 2,481
- The cash margin was flat at 17% profit increased from 2,104 to 2,481 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 16% now.
- We use a 16% cash margin to predict a 2,474 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,420 2,412 2,474 -205 6,836
-706 568 -1,206 -355 2,197
- Free cashflow went from -560 to 9,034 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 2,197 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3,181 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -706 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,458 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
10,745 13,677 15,684 13,604 17,197
40,548 40,084 42,948 41,092 38,462
- Cash increased 13,604 to 17,197 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 41,092 to 38,462 billion rupiah so net cash was up -27,488 to -21,265 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3,907 billion rupiah equity payout -5,926 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -15,338 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
735 -210 -158 336 5,184
77 193 -530 66 1,195
- INDY.jk paid 6,379 billion rupiah in the third quarter 5,184 billion rupiah liabilities 1,195 billion rupiah equity, will pay 9,834 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 15,036 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 26% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 9,834 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a 96% higher target price 5,670 rupiah.