INDY 9% yield forecast
INDY Current 2,870 Target 5,753 + 100%
11 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 44% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
Latest net cash -182% of market cap
Sales grew 33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
21% 23% 5% -9% 33%
706 868 913 831 1,108
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-86% -97% -85% -84% -83%
32 -37 71 85 144
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
45 239 169 173 -14
20 -49 40 -84 -24
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
617 750 958 1,095 928
2,708 2,830 2,808 2,998 2,803
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-195 -139 -140 -188 -160
19 51 -15 -11 23
6 5 14 -37 5
11 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 44% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
Latest net cash -182% of market cap
Sales grew 33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
21% 23% 5% -9% 33%
706 868 913 831 1,108
- Sales grew 33% in the second quarter to 1,108 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -4% now.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,267 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-86% -97% -85% -84% -83%
32 -37 71 85 144
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -83% profit from 85 to 144 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use the average -87% cost ratio to predict a 115 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
45 239 169 173 -14
20 -49 40 -84 -24
- Free cashflow went negative from 89 to -38 million dollars in the second quarter with -24 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 112 million dollars now.
- We assume -29 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 129 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
617 750 958 1,095 928
2,708 2,830 2,808 2,998 2,803
- Cash declined 1,095 to 928 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,998 to 2,803 million dollars so net cash was up -1,903 to -1,875 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -89 million dollars equity payout -427 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,448 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-195 -139 -140 -188 -160
19 51 -15 -11 23
6 5 14 -37 5
- INDY cumulative capital improved -188 to -160 million dollars with + 23 & + 5 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 356 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,030 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 516 million dollars which means a 2 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 100% higher target price 5,753 rupiah.
