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Picture

INDY at 2X cashflow

INDY.jk Current 2,890 Target 5,670 + 96%

12/3/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 51%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 85% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 40% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -141% of market cap

Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 5% -9% 36% 15%
12,434 13,039 11,906 16,243 18,758
  • Sales grew 15% in the third quarter to 18,758 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 12% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 19,512 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
3% 15% 16% 17% 17%
-534 1,019 1,218 2,104 2,481
  • The cash margin was flat at 17% profit increased from 2,104 to 2,481 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 16% now.
  • We use a 16% cash margin to predict a 2,474 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,420 2,412 2,474 -205 6,836
-706 568 -1,206 -355 2,197
  • Free cashflow went from -560 to 9,034 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 2,197 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3,181 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -706 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,458 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
10,745 13,677 15,684 13,604 17,197
40,548 40,084 42,948 41,092 38,462
  • Cash increased 13,604 to 17,197 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 41,092 to 38,462 billion rupiah so net cash was up -27,488 to -21,265 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -3,907 billion rupiah equity payout -5,926 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -15,338 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
735 -210 -158 336 5,184
77 193 -530 66 1,195
  • INDY.jk paid 6,379 billion rupiah in the third quarter 5,184 billion rupiah liabilities 1,195 billion rupiah equity, will pay 9,834 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 15,036 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 26% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 9,834 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a 96% higher target price 5,670 rupiah.
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