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INDR looking sharp with a 9% yield forecast

INDR Current 8,100 Target 13,544 + 67%

May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
42% -3% 12% 8% 11%

• Sales grew 11% in the first quarter to 272 million dollars vs our 239 million dollars forecast.
• This brings the quarterly average to 7% growth.
• We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 302 million dollars in the first quarter of 2023.

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Costs up profit up
-88% -85% -90% -84% -84%

• The cash cost ratio was flat at -84% profit increased from 30 to 34 million dollars in the first quarter.
• The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
• We use a -85% cost ratio to predict a 36 million dollars profit in the first quarter of 2023.

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Cashflow higher
12, 58, -5, -20, 12

• Free cashflow went from -20 to 12 million dollars in the first quarter with -14 million dollars investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at 11 million dollars now.
• We assume -10 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 34 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.

Balance sheet net cash improved
-380 -358 -369 -391 -382

• Cash increased 51 to 59 million dollars in the first quarter.
• Liabilities declined 442 to 441 million dollars so net cash improved -391 to -382 million dollars .
• With our forecast cashflow & a -34 million dollars equity payout -82 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -289 million dollars in 12 months time.

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Capital paid improved , a 67% higher target price
210, 249, 253, 227, 230

• INDR 28 quarters capital paid improved 227 to 230 million dollars in the third quarter with a -4 liabilities payment & will be 346 million dollars in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 379 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.40 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 9% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 127 million dollars which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 67% higher target price 13,544 rupiah.

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