INDR cash slumps
INDR.jk Current 5,850 Target 6,419 + 10%
11/25/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
11% 8% 11% -8% 6%
3,255 3,503 3,890 3,574 3,788
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 16% 16% 12% 5%
208 430 487 293 50
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
60 -73 362 281 -101
-126 -206 -196 -9 -86
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
630 728 845 777 267
5,917 6,310 6,318 6,626 6,470
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
127 -436 54 359 -272
0 -4 0 0 652
11/25/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 16%
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 9% of market cap
- Latest net cash -162% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
11% 8% 11% -8% 6%
3,255 3,503 3,890 3,574 3,788
- Sales grew 6% in the third quarter to 3,788 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,117 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 16% 16% 12% 5%
208 430 487 293 50
- The cash margin went from 12% to 5% profit from 293 to 50 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 12% now.
- We use a 7% cash margin to predict a 180 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
60 -73 362 281 -101
-126 -206 -196 -9 -86
- Free cashflow went negative from 273 to -187 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -86 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -7 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -148 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 150 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
630 728 845 777 267
5,917 6,310 6,318 6,626 6,470
- Cash declined 777 to 267 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 6,626 to 6,470 billion rupiah so net cash was down -5,849 to -6,203 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -600 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,603 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
127 -436 54 359 -272
0 -4 0 0 652
- INDR.jk paid 380 billion rupiah in the third quarter -272 billion rupiah liabilities 652 billion rupiah equity & will pay 600 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 3,828 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.27 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 600 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 10% higher target price 6,419 rupiah.
