INDF at 4X cashflow
INDF Current 6,275 Target 10,077 + 61%
Sep 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-7% 12% 4% 3% -8%
22,743 25,516 26,537 27,447 25,340
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-85% -85% -84% -84% -93%
2,412 2,960 3,202 3,303 859
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
3,469 2,515 5,927 789 2,729
-1,842 -1,961 112 -3,259 2,072
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
18,280 17,802 29,478 28,493 24,794
85,719 89,166 92,724 96,390 88,142
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-13,445 -12,482 -18,099 -19,479 -10,320
479 -2,760 -5,558 -1,380 8,875
263 3,723 -59 0 284
Sep 2, 2022
1 minute read
- INDF last 12 months sales growth below average + 11%
- INDF last 12 months cash flow 4X average + 16% of market cap
- INDF last 12 months Capital 6X average + 6% of market cap
- INDF latest net cash -115% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-7% 12% 4% 3% -8%
22,743 25,516 26,537 27,447 25,340
- Sales declined seasonally -8% in the second quarter to 25,340 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 28,836 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-85% -85% -84% -84% -93%
2,412 2,960 3,202 3,303 859
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -93% profit from 3,303 to 859 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use a -85% cost ratio to predict a 3,098 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
3,469 2,515 5,927 789 2,729
-1,842 -1,961 112 -3,259 2,072
- Free cashflow went from -2,470 to 4,801 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 2,072 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,231 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -924 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 3,160 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
18,280 17,802 29,478 28,493 24,794
85,719 89,166 92,724 96,390 88,142
- Cash declined 28,493 to 24,794 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 96,390 to 88,142 billion rupiah so net cash was up -67,897 to -63,348 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -12,640 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -54,953 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-13,445 -12,482 -18,099 -19,479 -10,320
479 -2,760 -5,558 -1,380 8,875
263 3,723 -59 0 284
- INDF cumulative capital improved -19,479 to -10,320 billion rupiah with + 8,875 & + 284 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -6,839 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 55,097 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.29 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 12,640 billion rupiah (vs 8,925 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 61% higher target price 10,077 rupiah.
