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INDF looking less dull at 4X forecast cashflow
INDF Current 5,950 Target 10,594 +78%
Apr 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
19% 7% -7% 12% 4%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -86% -85% -85% -84%
Cashflow 10X higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,190, -360, 1,627, 554, 6,040
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-66,661 -70,239 -67,439 -71,364 -63,246
Capital raised worsened, a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-13,905 -14,188 -13,445 -12,482 -18,099
Apr 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
19% 7% -7% 12% 4%
- Sales grew 4% in the fourth quarter to 26,537 billion rupiah -1% below our 26,791 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 28,429 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -86% -85% -85% -84%
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -84% profit from 2,960 to 3,202 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the latest -84% cost ratio to predict a 3,547 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow 10X higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,190, -360, 1,627, 554, 6,040
- Free cashflow went 10X from 554 to 6,040 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 112 billion rupiah investment gains & positive working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,965 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -924 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 3,505 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-66,661 -70,239 -67,439 -71,364 -63,246
- Cash increased 17,802 to 29,478 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 89,166 to 92,724 billion rupiah so net cash improved -71,364 to -63,246 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,691 billion rupiah equity payout -10,597 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -52,307 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened, a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-13,905 -14,188 -13,445 -12,482 -18,099
- INDF 28 quarters capital raised worsened -12,482 to -18,099 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 5,558 billion rupiah new liabilities 59 billion rupiah new equity but will be -5,153 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 52,244 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at only 0.29 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 13,288 billion rupiah which means an 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 78% higher target price 10,594 rupiah.