INDF mixed, quite cheap
INDF.jk Current 6,325 Target 9,823 + 55%
11/30/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% 4% 3% -8% 11%
25,516 26,537 27,447 25,340 28,035
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
15% 16% 16% 7% 15%
2,960 3,202 3,303 859 2,522
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
2,515 5,927 789 2,729 3,425
-1,961 112 -3,259 2,072 -1,975
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
17,802 29,478 28,493 24,794 26,492
89,166 92,724 96,390 88,142 92,814
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-5,558 -1,380 8,875 0 -5,273
-59 0 284 0 3,536
11/30/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 10%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 18% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 11% of market cap
- Latest net cash -119% of market cap
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% 4% 3% -8% 11%
25,516 26,537 27,447 25,340 28,035
- Sales grew 11% in the third quarter to 28,035 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 30,753 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
15% 16% 16% 7% 15%
2,960 3,202 3,303 859 2,522
- The cash margin went from 7% to 15% profit from 859 to 2,522 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 13% now.
- We use a 15% cash margin to predict a 3,393 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
2,515 5,927 789 2,729 3,425
-1,961 112 -3,259 2,072 -1,975
- Free cashflow went from 4,801 to 1,450 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,975 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,455 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,975 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,396 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
17,802 29,478 28,493 24,794 26,492
89,166 92,724 96,390 88,142 92,814
- Cash increased 24,794 to 26,492 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 88,142 to 92,814 billion rupiah so net cash was down -63,348 to -66,322 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -9,583 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -56,739 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-5,558 -1,380 8,875 0 -5,273
-59 0 284 0 3,536
- INDF.jk (raised) -1,737 billion rupiah in the third quarter -5,273 billion rupiah liabilities 3,536 billion rupiah equity , will pay 9,583 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 55,536 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.30 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 9,583 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 55% higher target price 9,823 rupiah.