INCO 624m dollars cash…
INCO Current 6,750 Target 7,482 + 11%
10/28/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
31% -2% -12% 32% 5%
272 267 235 311 327
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-63% -66% -64% -61% -72%
123 -16 68 83 18
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
72 119 53 113 79
-28 -80 -42 -45 -39
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
470 508 518 586 624
292 318 322 312 332
Capital still flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
208 208 208 208 209
0 0 0 -0 0
0 0 0 0 0
10/28/22
1 minute read
- INCO last 12 months sales growth + 21%
- INCO last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- INCO last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- INCO latest net cash + 7% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
31% -2% -12% 32% 5%
272 267 235 311 327
- Sales grew 5% in the third quarter to 327 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 361 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-63% -66% -64% -61% -72%
123 -16 68 83 18
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -72% profit from 83 to 18 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use a -72% cost ratio to predict a 61 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
72 119 53 113 79
-28 -80 -42 -45 -39
- Free cashflow went from 69 to 40 million dollars in the third quarter with -39 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 40 million dollars now.
- We assume -39 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 56 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
470 508 518 586 624
292 318 322 312 332
- Cash increased 586 to 624 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 312 to 332 million dollars so net cash was up 274 to 292 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -62 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 517 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital still flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
208 208 208 208 209
0 0 0 -0 0
0 0 0 0 0
- INCO cumulative capital was still flat at 209 million dollars with 0 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 270 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,471 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.6 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 225 million dollars (vs 159 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 20 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 11% higher target price 7,482 rupiah.
