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Picture
Picture
INCO.jk Cashflow less positive

Current 6,825 Target 6,539 -4%

Feb 17, 2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 26%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 0% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities 8% of market cap

Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-2% -12% 36% 13% -6%
3,809 ; 3,368 ; 4,565 ; 5,140 ; 4,807 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -6% in the fourth quarter to 4,807 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,966 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
9% 46% 39% 18% 25%
-227 ; 969 ; 1,215 ; 281 ; 496 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 18% to 25% net profit from 281 to 496 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 32% now.
  • We use a 27% cash profit margin to predict a 736 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,703 ; 753 ; 1,662 ; 1,248 ; 1,611 billion rupiah
-1,146 ; -606 ; -655 ; -616 ; -1,441 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 632 to 170 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -1,441 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 489 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -830 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 492 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
7,252 ; 7,421 ; 8,591 ; 9,800 ; 9,954 billion rupiah
4,539 ; 4,613 ; 4,574 ; 5,214 ; 4,757 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 9,800 to 9,954 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 5,214 to 4,757 billion rupiah so net cash was up 4,586 to 5,197 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -842 billion rupiah equity payout -882 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 6,323 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; -0 ; 0 ; 32 billion rupiah
1 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • INCO.jk paid 32 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 32 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,725 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 67,816 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.58 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 1% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,969 billion rupiah which means a 34 X valuation. A 33 X valuation gives a -4% lower target price 6,539 rupiah.
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