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INAF, a -82% lower target price
Current 2,410 Target 439 -82%
November 9th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 36%
Costs one point higher
Cashflow negative again
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a -82% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 36%
- Sales jumped 36% in the third quarter to 649 billion rupiah vs our 500 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 56% growth.
- We predict average growth of 36% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,091 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs one point higher
- The cash cost ratio was 1 point higher at -99% in the third quarter giving a 2 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is still above 100% at -104% now.
- We use a lower -98% cost ratio as sales rise to predict a 11 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative again
- Free cashflow was negative again -75 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -32 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -11 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 6 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash increased from 118 to 350 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 1,520 to 1,905 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -1,402 to -1,555 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a small -14 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -1,541 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -82% lower target price
- INAF capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -441 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be only slightly better at -414 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,469 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.17 X assets with a 73 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 27 billion rupiah which means a huge 274 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -82% lower target price of 439 rupiah.