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Picture

INAF cashflow positive, expensive

INAF.jk Current 985 Target 809 -18%

12/5/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -49%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -40% of market cap

Sales grew 41%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
36% 117% -76% -31% 41%
649 1,404 339 235 331
  • Sales grew 41% in the third quarter to 331 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 25% now.
  • This brings the average to 13% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 11% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 447 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
1% -2% -13% -14% -25%
2 -40 -51 -40 -92
  • The cash margin went from -14% to -25% profit from -40 to -92 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -13% now.
  • We use a 2% cash margin to predict a 0 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-43 182 -93 32 14
-32 -77 -10 -6 -3
  • Free cashflow went from 26 to 11 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -3 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 5 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
350 381 296 261 269
1,905 1,504 1,470 1,449 1,487
  • Cash increased 261 to 269 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,449 to 1,487 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,188 to -1,218 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -20 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,198 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-217 -16 17 25 3
0 0 0 0 0
  • INAF.jk paid 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter 3 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 20 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 3,053 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.70 X assets with a 76 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 20 billion rupiah which means a 152 X valuation. A 125 X valuation gives a -18% lower target price 809 rupiah.
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