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INAF, a -82% lower target price
Current 2,410 Target 439 -82%

November 9th 2021
1 minute read

Sales jumped 36%
  • Sales jumped 36% in the third quarter to 649 billion rupiah vs our 500 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 56% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 36% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,091 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs one point higher
  • The cash cost ratio was 1 point higher at -99% in the third quarter giving a 2 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is still above 100% at -104% now.
  • We use a lower -98% cost ratio as sales rise to predict a 11 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow negative again
  • Free cashflow was negative again -75 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -32 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -11 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 6 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • Cash increased from 118 to 350 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 1,520 to 1,905 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -1,402 to -1,555 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a small -14 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -1,541 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a -82% lower target price
  • INAF capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -441 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be only slightly better at -414 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 7,469 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.17 X assets with a 73 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 27 billion rupiah which means a huge 274 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -82% lower target price of 439 rupiah.
Data & financial model
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