INAF cashflow turned positive
INAF Current 1,070 Target 1,124 + 5%
Aug 20, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
Latest net cash -36% of market cap
Sales declined -31%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
28% 36% 117% -76% -31%
476 649 1,404 339 235
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-82% -108% -89% -135% -91%
-1 2 -40 -51 -40
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
111 -43 182 -93 32
-3 -32 -77 -10 -6
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
118 350 381 296 261
1,520 1,905 1,504 1,470 1,449
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-224 -441 -457 -440 -415
9 -217 -16 17 25
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 20, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
Latest net cash -36% of market cap
Sales declined -31%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
28% 36% 117% -76% -31%
476 649 1,404 339 235
- Sales declined -31% in the second quarter to 235 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 39% now.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 19% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 396 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-82% -108% -89% -135% -91%
-1 2 -40 -51 -40
- The cash cost ratio went from -135% to -91% profit from -51 to -40 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -106% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio to predict a 23 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
111 -43 182 -93 32
-3 -32 -77 -10 -6
- Free cashflow went positive from -103 to 26 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -6 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -12 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -6 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives higher 25 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
118 350 381 296 261
1,520 1,905 1,504 1,470 1,449
- Cash declined 296 to 261 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,470 to 1,449 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,174 to -1,188 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -17 billion rupiah equity payout -83 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,105 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-224 -441 -457 -440 -415
9 -217 -16 17 25
0 0 0 0 0
- INAF cumulative capital improved -440 to -415 billion rupiah with + 25 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -315 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,316 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.78 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 100 billion rupiah which means a 33 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a 5% higher target price 1,124 rupiah.
