IKBI.jk s Cashflow more negative
Current 210 Target 228 + 9%
2/1/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-9% 15% -20% 30% 9%
791 ; 911 ; 733 ; 955 ; 1,045 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
-1% -1% 0% 1% 2%
-6 ; -9 ; 0 ; 8 ; 17 billion rupiah
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
21 ; 2 ; -9 ; 3 ; -72 billion rupiah
-28 ; -5 ; -3 ; -6 ; -5 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
104 ; 61 ; 47 ; 55 ; 41 billion rupiah
647 ; 635 ; 642 ; 674 ; 825 billion rupiah
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-59 ; 38 ; 3 ; -9 ; -61 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
Current 210 Target 228 + 9%
2/1/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 32%
- Last 12 months cash flow -36% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -11% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -296% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-9% 15% -20% 30% 9%
791 ; 911 ; 733 ; 955 ; 1,045 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 9% in the fourth quarter to 1,045 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -100% now.
- This brings the quarterly average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,098 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
-1% -1% 0% 1% 2%
-6 ; -9 ; 0 ; 8 ; 17 billion rupiah
- The net profit margin went from 1% to 2% profit from 8 to 17 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 0% now.
- We use a 2% net profit margin to predict a 21 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
21 ; 2 ; -9 ; 3 ; -72 billion rupiah
-28 ; -5 ; -3 ; -6 ; -5 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from -4 to -76 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -5 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -24 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 29 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
104 ; 61 ; 47 ; 55 ; 41 billion rupiah
647 ; 635 ; 642 ; 674 ; 825 billion rupiah
- Cash declined 55 to 41 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 674 to 825 billion rupiah so net cash was down -619 to -784 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -115 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -669 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-59 ; 38 ; 3 ; -9 ; -61 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
- IKBI.jk (raised) -61 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter -61 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 115 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 265 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.14 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 115 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price 228 rupiah.