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ICBP a bit dull as sales decline, but cashflow rises

ICBP Current 7,350 Target 9,877 +34%

Apr 1, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
17% 18% -13% 10% -2%
  • Sales declined -2% in the fourth quarter to 14,182 billion rupiah -11% below our 15,865 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 15,634 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -83% -83% -82% -84%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -84% profit from 2,117 to 1,818 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
  • We use the average -83% cost ratio to predict a 2,216 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,396, 1,683, 1,997, 1,869, 2,440
  • Free cashflow went from 1,869 to 2,440 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -677 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,997 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -677 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,947 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-43,735 -44,952 -43,649 -45,238 -43,265
  • Cash increased 9,222 to 20,378 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 54,460 to 63,643 billion rupiah so net cash improved -45,238 to -43,265 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -827 billion rupiah equity payout -6,372 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -36,894 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital raised worsened a 34% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-16,276 -15,927 -15,569 -12,930 -22,390
  • ICBP 28 quarters capital raised worsened -12,930 to -22,390 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 9,872 billion rupiah new liabilities, a -412 billion rupiah equity payout but will be -15,191 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 85,715 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.72 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 7,199 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 34% higher target price 9,877 rupiah.
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