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ICBP a bit dull as sales decline, but cashflow rises
ICBP Current 7,350 Target 9,877 +34%
Apr 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
17% 18% -13% 10% -2%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -83% -83% -82% -84%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,396, 1,683, 1,997, 1,869, 2,440
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-43,735 -44,952 -43,649 -45,238 -43,265
Capital raised worsened a 34% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-16,276 -15,927 -15,569 -12,930 -22,390
Apr 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
17% 18% -13% 10% -2%
- Sales declined -2% in the fourth quarter to 14,182 billion rupiah -11% below our 15,865 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 15,634 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -83% -83% -82% -84%
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -84% profit from 2,117 to 1,818 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use the average -83% cost ratio to predict a 2,216 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,396, 1,683, 1,997, 1,869, 2,440
- Free cashflow went from 1,869 to 2,440 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -677 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,997 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -677 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,947 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-43,735 -44,952 -43,649 -45,238 -43,265
- Cash increased 9,222 to 20,378 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 54,460 to 63,643 billion rupiah so net cash improved -45,238 to -43,265 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -827 billion rupiah equity payout -6,372 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -36,894 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened a 34% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-16,276 -15,927 -15,569 -12,930 -22,390
- ICBP 28 quarters capital raised worsened -12,930 to -22,390 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 9,872 billion rupiah new liabilities, a -412 billion rupiah equity payout but will be -15,191 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 85,715 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.72 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 7,199 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 34% higher target price 9,877 rupiah.