ICBP margins down
ICBP Current 8,700 Target 10,089 + 16%
Sep 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-13% 10% -2% 21% -10%
13,107 14,423 14,182 17,189 15,404
Costs up profit loss
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -82% -84% -83% -98%
1,836 2,117 1,818 2,576 -164
Cashflow higher with investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,932 1,825 2,386 1,598 835
-716 -571 -677 -2,828 2,118
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
10,672 9,222 20,378 18,900 13,017
54,321 54,460 63,643 64,655 56,562
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-15,569 -12,930 -22,390 -22,049 -12,627
-105 -116 -9,872 341 9,170
463 2,755 412 0 252
Sep 2, 2022
1 minute read
- ICBP last 12 months sales growth below average + 18%
- ICBP last 12 months cash flow above average + 5% of market cap
- ICBP last 12 months Capital 3X average + 3% of market cap
- ICBP latest net cash -43% of market cap
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-13% 10% -2% 21% -10%
13,107 14,423 14,182 17,189 15,404
- Sales declined -10% in the second quarter to 15,404 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 0% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 17,751 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit loss
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -82% -84% -83% -98%
1,836 2,117 1,818 2,576 -164
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -98% profit from 2,576 to -164 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use the average -87% cost ratio to predict a 1,861 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher with investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,932 1,825 2,386 1,598 835
-716 -571 -677 -2,828 2,118
- Free cashflow went from -1,231 to 2,953 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 2,118 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,171 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -489 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,838 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
10,672 9,222 20,378 18,900 13,017
54,321 54,460 63,643 64,655 56,562
- Cash declined 18,900 to 13,017 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 64,655 to 56,562 billion rupiah so net cash was up -45,755 to -43,545 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -743 billion rupiah equity payout -6,611 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -36,934 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-15,569 -12,930 -22,390 -22,049 -12,627
-105 -116 -9,872 341 9,170
463 2,755 412 0 252
- ICBP cumulative capital improved -22,049 to -12,627 billion rupiah with + 9,170 & + 252 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -5,274 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 101,459 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.89 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 7,353 billion rupiah (vs 4,686 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 14 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 16% higher target price 10,089 rupiah.
