IATA cashflow negative
IATA Current 151 Target 89 -41%
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
0% 42% 1,082% 9% 21%
2 3 40 44 53
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-421% -86% -57% -63% -86%
-9 10 16 16 7
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-4 5 1 1 5
-0 -2 -0 0 -12
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
0 2 1 3 1
39 73 231 234 244
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-7 -2 -1 -1 -6
-3 3 2 -1 -5
0 2 0 0 0
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
- IATA last 12 months sales growth + 2,119%
- IATA last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- IATA last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- IATA latest net cash -212% of market cap
Sales jumped 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
0% 42% 1,082% 9% 21%
2 3 40 44 53
- Sales jumped 21% in the third quarter to 53 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -15% now.
- This brings the average to 289% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 58 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-421% -86% -57% -63% -86%
-9 10 16 16 7
- The cash cost ratio went from -63% to -86% profit from 16 to 7 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -73% now.
- We use the latest -86% cost ratio to predict a 7 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-4 5 1 1 5
-0 -2 -0 0 -12
- Free cashflow went from 1 to -7 million dollars in the third quarter with -12 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -0 million dollars now.
- We assume -6 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
0 2 1 3 1
39 73 231 234 244
- Cash declined 3 to 1 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 234 to 244 million dollars so net cash was down -231 to -243 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -7 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -236 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-7 -2 -1 -1 -6
-3 3 2 -1 -5
0 2 0 0 0
- IATA cumulative capital worsened -1 to -6 million dollars with -5 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 1 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 115 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.6 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 7 million dollars (vs 0 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 17 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -41% lower target price 89 rupiah.
