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HRUM looking sharp with sales at a new record high

HRUM Current 10,350 Target 13,418 + 30%

May 12, 2022
1 minute read

Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters
162% 3% 53% 46% 16%
  • Sales grew 16% in the first quarter to 152 million dollars 11% above our 137 million dollars forecast.
  • This brings the average to 29% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 185 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-70% -67% -57% -61% -46%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -46% profit from 46 to 77 million dollars in the first quarter
  • The average cost ratio is at -58% now.
  • We use the average -58% cost ratio to predict a 73 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
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Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-134, -23, -16, 26, 31
  • Free cashflow went from 26 to 31 million dollars in the first quarter with -1 million dollars investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5 million dollars now.
  • We assume the same -1 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 77 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
​
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
27, -10, -9, -75, -45
  • Cash increased 149 to 200 million dollars in the first quarter
  • Liabilities increased 224 to 245 million dollars so net cash improved -75 to -45 million dollars
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -167 million dollars equity payout -45 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be 84 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital raised worsened , a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
23 10 -24 8 -12
  • HRUM 25 quarter capital raised worsened 8 to -12 million dollars in the first quarter with 3 million dollars new liabilities 17 million dollars new equity but will be postive 201 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 1,828 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.7 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 9% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 296 million dollars which means an 6 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 13,418 rupiah.
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