HRUM 31% yield forecast
HRUM.jk Current 1,640 Target 2,384 + 45%
11/19/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 50%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
52% 45% 17% 51% 50%
1,287 1,866 2,181 3,303 4,953
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-67% -62% -55% -52% -55%
471 661 1,106 1,561 1,847
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
378 862 464 1,896 2,313
-600 -488 -14 -1,199 -60
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,221 2,127 2,865 3,093 4,664
2,350 3,198 3,510 3,181 3,628
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-190 372 -37 710 864
-305 88 -245 -167 39
11/19/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 285%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 17% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
- Latest net cash 5% of market cap
Sales grew 50%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
52% 45% 17% 51% 50%
1,287 1,866 2,181 3,303 4,953
- Sales grew 50% in the third quarter to 4,953 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 41% growth.
- We predict average growth of -1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,847 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-67% -62% -55% -52% -55%
471 661 1,106 1,561 1,847
- The cash cost ratio went from -52% to -55% profit from 1,561 to 1,847 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -56% now.
- We use a -55% cost ratio to predict a 2,086 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
378 862 464 1,896 2,313
-600 -488 -14 -1,199 -60
- Free cashflow went from 696 to 2,254 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -60 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 943 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -424 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 1,764 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,221 2,127 2,865 3,093 4,664
2,350 3,198 3,510 3,181 3,628
- Cash increased 3,093 to 4,664 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,181 to 3,628 billion rupiah so net cash was up -88 to 1,037 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -6,698 billion rupiah equity payout -1 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 1,393 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-190 372 -37 710 864
-305 88 -245 -167 39
- HRUM.jk paid 903 billion rupiah in the third quarter 864 billion rupiah liabilities 39 billion rupiah equity & will pay 6,699 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 21,839 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.06 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 31% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 7,055 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 45% higher target price 2,384 rupiah.
