sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
Picture

HRUM 31% yield forecast

HRUM.jk Current 1,640 Target 2,384 + 45%

11/19/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 285%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 17% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 5% of market cap

Sales grew 50%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
52% 45% 17% 51% 50%
1,287 1,866 2,181 3,303 4,953
  • Sales grew 50% in the third quarter to 4,953 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 41% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,847 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-67% -62% -55% -52% -55%
471 661 1,106 1,561 1,847
  • The cash cost ratio went from -52% to -55% profit from 1,561 to 1,847 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -56% now.
  • We use a -55% cost ratio to predict a 2,086 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
378 862 464 1,896 2,313
-600 -488 -14 -1,199 -60
  • Free cashflow went from 696 to 2,254 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -60 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 943 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -424 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 1,764 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,221 2,127 2,865 3,093 4,664
2,350 3,198 3,510 3,181 3,628
  • Cash increased 3,093 to 4,664 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 3,181 to 3,628 billion rupiah so net cash was up -88 to 1,037 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -6,698 billion rupiah equity payout -1 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 1,393 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-190 372 -37 710 864
-305 88 -245 -167 39
  • HRUM.jk paid 903 billion rupiah in the third quarter 864 billion rupiah liabilities 39 billion rupiah equity & will pay 6,699 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 21,839 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.06 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 31% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 7,055 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 45% higher target price 2,384 rupiah.
Picture
SUBSCRIBE
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS