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Picture

HOKI expensive

HOKI.jk Current 123 Target 103 -16%

11/29/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 15%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 12% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -25% of market cap

Sales grew 14%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 52% -23% -13% 14%
200 304 232 202 230
  • Sales grew 14% in the third quarter to 230 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 304 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
6% 3% 6% 5% 2%
4 1 6 1 -5
  • The cash margin went from 5% to 2% profit from 1 to -5 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 4% now.
  • We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 3 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-56 16 48 -8 146
-5 -20 -4 -10 -21
  • Free cashflow went positive from -18 to 124 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -21 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 36 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -10 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
4 5 6 2 5
323 320 279 298 304
  • Cash increased 2 to 5 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 298 to 304 billion rupiah so net cash was down -296 to -299 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -7 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -292 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-71 27 43 -18 17
10 0 0 0 10
  • HOKI.jk paid 27 billion rupiah in the third quarter 17 billion rupiah liabilities 10 billion rupiah equity & will pay 7 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,190 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s expensive at 1.23 X assets with a 146 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 7 billion rupiah which means a 179 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 103 rupiah.
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