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HOKI less dull as cashflow turns positive
HOKI Current 150 Target 144 -4%
Jun 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
2% -21% 6% 52% -23%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -94% -97% -94%
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-22, 15, -61, -4, 44
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-263 -245 -319 -315 -273
Capital raised improved a -4% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-226 -235 -297 -269 -225
Jun 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
2% -21% 6% 52% -23%
- Sales declined seasonally -23% in the first quarter to 232 billion rupiah but 5% above our 220 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 295 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -94% -97% -94%
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -94% profit from 1 to 6 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the latest -94% cost ratio to predict a 9 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-22, 15, -61, -4, 44
- Free cashflow went positive from -4 to 44 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -4 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 13 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-263 -245 -319 -315 -273
- Cash increased 5 to 6 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 320 to 279 billion rupiah so net cash improved -315 to -273 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -46 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -227 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved a -4% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-226 -235 -297 -269 -225
- HOKI 25 quarter capital raised improved -269 to -225 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -43 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -179 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,452 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.5 X assets with a 20 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 46 billion rupiah which means a 31 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a -4% lower target price 144 rupiah.