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HMSP still sharp with an 8% yield forecast
HMSP Current 970 Target 1,611 + 66%
28 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters
4% 2% 3% 6% -1%
Costs down! profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -92% -93% -93% -92%
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,765, 8,253, 6,379, -2,440, -576
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
949, -3,116, -898, -6,055, -11,492
Capital paid improved , a 66% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
57,862, 66,330, 66,330, 66,251, 66,302
28 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters
4% 2% 3% 6% -1%
- Sales declined -1% in the first quarter to 26,161 billion rupiah 2% above our 25,638 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 28,797 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down! profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -92% -93% -93% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -92% profit from 1,583 to 1915 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use a lower -91% cost ratio to predict a 2,269 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,765, 8,253, 6,379, -2,440, -576
- Free cashflow went from -2,440 to -576 billion rupiah in the first quarter even with -144 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,904 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,409 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
949, -3,116, -898, -6,055, -11,492
- Cash declined 17,844 to 17,218 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 23,899 to 28,710 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -6,055 to -11,492 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -8,808 billion rupiah equity payout -1,094 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,399 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 66% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
57,862, 66,330, 66,330, 66,251, 66,302
- HMSP 29 quarter capital paid improved 66,251 to 66,302 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -51 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 76,204 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 112,828 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.92 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 9,369 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 66% higher target price 1,611 rupiah.