HMS 5% yield forecast
HMSP Current 1,005 Target 1,395 + 39%
Oct 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 6% -1% 5% 9%
24,891 26,356 26,161 27,345 29,893
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -92% -95% -93%
1,421 1,583 1,915 1,133 1,854
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
6,383 -2,383 -432 -304 6,479
-4 -57 -144 -143 -9,621
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
20,556 17,844 17,218 9,615 6,275
21,454 23,899 28,710 17,667 21,085
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
66,330 66,251 66,302 73,458 73,656
0 -79 51 -208 198
0 0 0 7,363 0
Oct 25, 2022
1 minute read
- HMSP last 12 months sales growth + 20%
- HMSP last 12 months cash flow -6% of market cap
- HMSP last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- HMSP latest net cash -13% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 6% -1% 5% 9%
24,891 26,356 26,161 27,345 29,893
- Sales grew 9% in the third quarter to 29,893 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 33,926 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -92% -95% -93%
1,421 1,583 1,915 1,133 1,854
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -93% profit from 1,133 to 1,854 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the average -93% cost ratio to predict a 2,078 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
6,383 -2,383 -432 -304 6,479
-4 -57 -144 -143 -9,621
- Free cashflow went more negative from -447 to -3,142 billion rupiah in the third quarter with (a related part loan) -9,621 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,651 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -143 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2,028 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
20,556 17,844 17,218 9,615 6,275
21,454 23,899 28,710 17,667 21,085
- Cash declined 9,615 to 6,275 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 17,667 to 21,085 billion rupiah so net cash was down -8,052 to -14,810 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -5,464 billion rupiah equity payout -2,648 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -11,936 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
66,330 66,251 66,302 73,458 73,656
0 -79 51 -208 198
0 0 0 7,363 0
- HMSP cumulative capital improved 73,458 to 73,656 billion rupiah with + 198 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 81,768 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 116,900 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.47 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 8,112 billion rupiah (vs -6,604 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 14 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 39% higher target price 1,395 rupiah.
