Other stocks here
HERO Still very dull & expensive
HERO Current 1,700 Target 856 -50%
May 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
-13% -68% 0% 15% 8%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -162% -100% -104% -98%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-177 -931 225 -124 -615
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,036 -3,538 -3,358 -5,231 -5,502
Capital raised worsened , a -50% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-426 -1,136 -1,036 -1,341 -1,861
May 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
-13% -68% 0% 15% 8%
- Sales grew 8% in the first quarter to 1,001 billion rupiah -46% below our 1,854 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average growth to -11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,334 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -162% -100% -104% -98%
- The cash cost ratio went from -104% to -98% profit from -217 to -67 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -116% now.
- We use a lower -97% cost ratio to predict a -54 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-177 -931 225 -124 -615
- Free cashflow went more negative from -124 to -615 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -74 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -361 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -21 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a -29 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,036 -3,538 -3,358 -5,231 -5,502
- Cash declined 169 to 74 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,400 to 5,576 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -5,231 to -5,502 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -35 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -5,467 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a -50% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-426 -1,136 -1,036 -1,341 -1,861
- HERO 25 quarter capital raised worsened -1,341 to -1,861 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 520 billion rupiah new liabilities button will be -1,825 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,112 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.16 X assets with a 53 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 119 billion rupiah which means an 60 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a -50% lower target price 856 rupiah.