HERO cashflow less negative
HERO Current 1,600 Target 1,322 -17%
11/13/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
0% 0% 75% 14% -4%
573 573 1,001 1,141 1,091
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-100% -104% -98% -96% -90%
-197 -217 -67 -46 28
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow & investment billion rupiah
-58 103 -540 -48 -256
283 -227 -74 -77 158
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
79 169 74 104 150
3,858 7,654 7,783 8,002 8,061
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,036 -1,341 -1,861 -2,016 -2,151
100 -305 -520 -155 -135
0 0 0 0 0
11/13/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 91%
- Last 12 months cash flow -14% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -17% of market cap
- Latest net cash -118% of market cap
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
0% 0% 75% 14% -4%
573 573 1,001 1,141 1,091
- Sales declined -4% in the third quarter to 1,091 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 75% now.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,402 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-100% -104% -98% -96% -90%
-197 -217 -67 -46 28
- The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -90% profit from -46 to 28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio to predict a 6 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow & investment billion rupiah
-58 103 -540 -48 -256
283 -227 -74 -77 158
- Free cashflow went less negative from -125 to -98 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 158 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -241 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -3 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
79 169 74 104 150
3,858 7,654 7,783 8,002 8,061
- Cash increased 104 to 150 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 8,002 to 8,061 billion rupiah so net cash was down -7,898 to -7,911 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 13 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -7,578 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,036 -1,341 -1,861 -2,016 -2,151
100 -305 -520 -155 -135
0 0 0 0 0
- HERO cumulative capital worsened -2,016 to -2,151 billion rupiah with -135 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -2,164 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,694 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.05 X assets with a -508 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m sales forecast is 5,533 billion rupiah which means a 1.2 X valuation. A 1.0 X valuation gives a -17% lower target price 1,322 rupiah.
