HERO sales up again
HERO Current 1,645 Target 1,115 -32%
Sep 8, 2022
1 minute read
HERO last 12 months sales growth 5X average + 99%
HERO last 12 months cash flow -9% of market cap
HERO last 12 months Capital -13% of market cap
HERO latest net cash -83% of market cap
Sales grew 14%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-68% 0% 0% 75% 14%
573 573 573 1,001 1,141
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-162% -100% -104% -98% -96%
-549 -197 -217 -67 -46
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-865 -58 103 -540 -48
-65 283 -227 -74 -77
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
80 79 169 74 104
3,618 3,437 5,400 5,576 5,823
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,136 -1,036 -1,341 -1,861 -2,016
-710 100 -305 -520 -155
0 0 0 0 0
Sep 8, 2022
1 minute read
HERO last 12 months sales growth 5X average + 99%
HERO last 12 months cash flow -9% of market cap
HERO last 12 months Capital -13% of market cap
HERO latest net cash -83% of market cap
Sales grew 14%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-68% 0% 0% 75% 14%
573 573 573 1,001 1,141
- Sales grew 14% in the second quarter to 1,141 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 75% now.
- This brings the average to 22% growth.
- We predict average growth of 24% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,542 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-162% -100% -104% -98% -96%
-549 -197 -217 -67 -46
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -96% profit from -67 to -46 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -100% now.
- We use a -96% cost ratio to predict a 5 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-865 -58 103 -540 -48
-65 283 -227 -74 -77
- Free cashflow went less negative from -615 to -125 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -77 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -160 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -24 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 6 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
80 79 169 74 104
3,618 3,437 5,400 5,576 5,823
- Cash increased 74 to 104 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,576 to 5,823 billion rupiah so net cash was down -5,502 to -5,719 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -23 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,528 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,136 -1,036 -1,341 -1,861 -2,016
-710 100 -305 -520 -155
0 0 0 0 0
- HERO cumulative capital worsened -1,861 to -2,016 billion rupiah with -155 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,992 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,882 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.09 X assets with a 278 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 23 billion rupiah (vs -640 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 295 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -32% lower target price 1,115 rupiah.
