HEAL very expensive now
HEAL Current 1,340 Target 821 -39%
Aug 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-5% 1% -22% -0% -5%
1,513 1,529 1,193 1,193 1,136
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-70% -74% -66% -78% -83%
348 290 295 145 69
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
208 131 1,498 79 180
-175 -261 -489 -317 -288
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
573 362 1,287 721 735
3,271 3,322 3,200 3,078 2,995
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-2,293 -2,211 -2,130 -1,803 -1,925
-39 62 -108 157 -188
99 20 189 170 66
Aug 12, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -12% of market cap
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-5% 1% -22% -0% -5%
1,513 1,529 1,193 1,193 1,136
- Sales declined -5% in the second quarter to 1,136 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to -6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,170 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-70% -74% -66% -78% -83%
348 290 295 145 69
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -83% profit from 145 to 69 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the average -75% cost ratio to predict a 169 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
208 131 1,498 79 180
-175 -261 -489 -317 -288
- Free cashflow went less negative from -239 to -108 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -288 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 133 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -256 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 30 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
573 362 1,287 721 735
3,271 3,322 3,200 3,078 2,995
- Cash increased 721 to 735 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,078 to 2,995 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,357 to -2,260 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -119 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,141 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-2,293 -2,211 -2,130 -1,803 -1,925
-39 62 -108 157 -188
99 20 189 170 66
- HEAL cumulative capital worsened -1,803 to -1,925 billion rupiah with -188 & + 66 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -1,806 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,355 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.44 X assets with a 56 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 119 billion rupiah which means a 163 X valuation. A 100 X valuation gives a -39% lower target price 821 rupiah.
