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HEAL looking less dull as Cashflow jumps positive
HEAL Current 1,295 Target 1,156 -11%
Apr 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters
33% 3% -5% 1% -22%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-74% -70% -70% -74% -66%
Cashflow jumps positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-104 -241 34 -129 1,011
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,108 -2,557 -2,698 -2,960 -1,913
Capital raised improved, a -11% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,796 -1,770 -1,712 -1,629 -1,543
Apr 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters
33% 3% -5% 1% -22%
- Sales declined -22% in the fourth quarter to 1,193 billion rupiah -26% below our 1,605 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to -6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,341 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-74% -70% -70% -74% -66%
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -66% profit from 290 to 295 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -70% now.
- We use the latest -66% cost ratio to predict a 346 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow jumps positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-104 -241 34 -129 1,011
- Free cashflow jumped positive from -129 to 1,011 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter even with high -489 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 169 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -295 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 159 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,108 -2,557 -2,698 -2,960 -1,913
- Cash increased 362 to 1,287 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,322 to 3,200 billion rupiah so net cash improved -2,960 to -1,913 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -128 billion rupiah equity payout -402 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,511 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved, a -11% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,796 -1,770 -1,712 -1,629 -1,543
- HEAL 18 quarters capital raised improved -1,629 to -1,543 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 108 billion rupiah liabilities -189 billion rupiah equity & will be -1,013 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,003 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.28 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 530 billion rupiah which means an 36 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -11% lower target price 1,156 rupiah.