HEAL expensive
HEAL Current 1,500 Target 1,002 -33%
11/9/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% -22% -0% -5% 11%
1,529 1,193 1,193 1,136 1,262
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-74% -66% -78% -83% -81%
290 295 145 69 101
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
131 1,498 79 180 322
-261 -489 -317 -288 -361
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
362 1,287 721 735 762
3,322 3,200 3,078 2,995 2,977
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-2,211 -2,130 -1,803 -1,925 -1,992
62 -108 157 -188 -65
20 189 170 66 -3
11/9/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -17%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -10% of market cap
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% -22% -0% -5% 11%
1,529 1,193 1,193 1,136 1,262
- Sales grew 11% in the third quarter to 1,262 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,313 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-74% -66% -78% -83% -81%
290 295 145 69 101
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -81% profit from 69 to 101 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use a -77% cost ratio to predict a 161 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
131 1,498 79 180 322
-261 -489 -317 -288 -361
- Free cashflow went from -108 to -40 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -361 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 156 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -175 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 121 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
362 1,287 721 735 762
3,322 3,200 3,078 2,995 2,977
- Cash increased 735 to 762 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,995 to 2,977 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,260 to -2,215 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -483 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,732 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-2,211 -2,130 -1,803 -1,925 -1,992
62 -108 157 -188 -65
20 189 170 66 -3
- HEAL cumulative capital worsened -1,925 to -1,992 billion rupiah with -65 & -3 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -1,509 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 21,695 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.83 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 483 billion rupiah which means a 45 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 1,002 rupiah.
