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HAL dull with negative cashflow but will rebound
HAL Current 32 Target 41 + 29%
Jun 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters
7% 7% 4% 11% 0%
Costs down profit down on lower non cash gains
Last 5 quarters
-96% -88% -86% -89% -88%
Cashflow negative from working capital
Last 5 quarters million dollars
141, 250, 530, 456, -205
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12,950 -12,830 -12,700 -12,549 -12,886
Capital paid improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,925, 1,970, 2,512, 2,540, 3,208
Jun 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters
7% 7% 4% 11% 0%
- Sales were flat in the first quarter at 4,284 million dollars -8% below our 4,662 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,147 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down on lower non cash gains
Last 5 quarters
-96% -88% -86% -89% -88%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -88% profit from 827 to 264 million dollars in the first quarter on lower non cash gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -88% now.
- We use the average -88% cost ratio to predict a 531 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative from working capital
Last 5 quarters million dollars
141, 250, 530, 456, -205
- Free cashflow went negative from 456 to -205 million dollars in the first quarter with -155 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 258 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -155 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 485 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12,950 -12,830 -12,700 -12,549 -12,886
- Cash declined 3,044 to 2,154 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 15,593 to 15,040 million dollars so net cash worsened -12,549 to -12,886 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -605 million dollars equity payout -1,231 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -11,655 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,925, 1,970, 2,512, 2,540, 3,208
- HAL 13 quarter capital paid improved 2,540 to 3,208 million dollars in the first quarter with -640 million dollars liabilities -105 million dollars equity payments & will be 5,045 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 28,584 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.28 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,837 million dollars which means a 16 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price 41 rupiah.