HAL Cashflow more positive
Current 41 Target 54 + 33%
1/24/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
11% 0% 18% 6% 4%
4,277 ; 4,284 ; 5,074 ; 5,357 ; 5,582 million dollars
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
11% 12% 16% 16% 21%
827 ; 264 ; 117 ; 549 ; 655 million dollars
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
682 ; -50 ; 376 ; 753 ; 1,163 million dollars
-226 ; -155 ; -193 ; -230 ; -389 million dollars
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
3,044 ; 2,154 ; 2,226 ; 1,977 ; 2,346 million dollars
15,593 ; 15,040 ; 15,297 ; 14,918 ; 15,278 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
4 ; 640 ; 2 ; 600 ; 0 million dollars
24 ; 105 ; 109 ; 112 ; 343 million dollars
Current 41 Target 54 + 33%
1/24/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 31%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -35% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
11% 0% 18% 6% 4%
4,277 ; 4,284 ; 5,074 ; 5,357 ; 5,582 million dollars
- Sales grew 4% in the fourth quarter to 5,582 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 5% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,864 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
11% 12% 16% 16% 21%
827 ; 264 ; 117 ; 549 ; 655 million dollars
- The cash margin went from 16% to 21% profit from 549 to 655 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 16% now.
- We use a 19% cash margin to predict a 647 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
682 ; -50 ; 376 ; 753 ; 1,163 million dollars
-226 ; -155 ; -193 ; -230 ; -389 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 523 to 774 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -389 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 319 million dollars now.
- We assume -242 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 816 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
3,044 ; 2,154 ; 2,226 ; 1,977 ; 2,346 million dollars
15,593 ; 15,040 ; 15,297 ; 14,918 ; 15,278 million dollars
- Cash increased 1,977 to 2,346 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 14,918 to 15,278 million dollars so net cash was up -12,941 to -12,932 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,230 million dollars equity payout -2,035 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -10,897 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
4 ; 640 ; 2 ; 600 ; 0 million dollars
24 ; 105 ; 109 ; 112 ; 343 million dollars
- HAL paid 343 million dollars in the fourth quarter 0 million dollars liabilities 343 million dollars equity, will pay 3,266 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 36,839 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.64 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,266 million dollars which means a 11 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 33% higher target price 54 rupiah.