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Picture

GZCO cashflow lower, positive

GZCO.jk Current 109 Target 166 + 52%
12/2/2022
1 minute read
  • Last 12 months sales growth -42%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 16% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 24% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -102% of market cap

Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
77% 19% -39% -27% 8%
207 248 152 110 120
  • Sales grew 8% in the third quarter to 120 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to -10% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 135 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
42% 46% 37% 13% 42%
27 52 14 -28 8
  • The cash margin went from 13% to 42% profit from -28 to 8 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 35% now.
  • We use a 38% cash margin to predict a 10 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
130 181 -49 -43 35
-10 -120 12 100 -9
  • Free cashflow went from 56 to 26 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -9 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 27 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -9 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 42 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
100 113 45 68 49
935 959 815 756 715
  • Cash declined 68 to 49 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 756 to 715 billion rupiah so net cash was up -688 to -666 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -133 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -500 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
31 47 30 34 45
0 2 0 0 0
  • GZCO.jk paid 45 billion rupiah in the third quarter 45 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 133 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 654 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.39 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 166 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 166 rupiah.
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