GZCO cashflow + again
GZCO Current 136 Target 211 + 55%
Sep 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-13% 77% 19% -39% -27%
117 207 248 152 110
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-68% -58% -54% -63% -87%
-23 27 52 14 -28
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
9 130 181 -49 -43
-2 -10 -120 12 100
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
12 100 113 45 68
937 935 959 815 756
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-33 -1 49 81 116
31 31 47 30 34
0 0 2 0 0
Sep 6, 2022
1 minute read
- GZCO last 12 months sales growth negative -6%
- GZCO last 12 months cash flow 6X average + 24% of market cap
- GZCO last 12 months Capital 18X average + 18% of market cap
- GZCO latest net cash -84% of market cap
Sales declined -27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-13% 77% 19% -39% -27%
117 207 248 152 110
- Sales declined -27% in the second quarter to 110 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -9% now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 145 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-68% -58% -54% -63% -87%
-23 27 52 14 -28
- The cash cost ratio went from -63% to -87% profit from 14 to -28 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use -73% cost ratio to predict a -3 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
9 130 181 -49 -43
-2 -10 -120 12 100
- Free cashflow went positive from -37 to 56 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 100 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 50 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -5 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 32 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
12 100 113 45 68
937 935 959 815 756
- Cash increased 45 to 68 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 815 to 756 billion rupiah so net cash was up -770 to -688 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -127 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -561 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-33 -1 49 81 116
31 31 47 30 34
0 0 2 0 0
- GZCO cumulative capital improved 81 to 116 billion rupiah with + 34 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 243 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 816 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.49 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 127 billion rupiah (vs 205 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means an 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 55% higher target price 211 rupiah.
