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GPSO a sales SLUMP
Current 128 Target 73 -43%
January 18 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 0%
Costs high, profit negative
Cashflow negative on investment spending
Balance sheet lower leverage
Valuation, expensive, a -43% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 0%
- Sales grew 0% in the third quarter to 3 billion rupiah & are down -50% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to -14% growth.
- We predict positive average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs high, profit negative
- The cash cost ratio was high at -150% profit was negative at -2 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -60%.
- We use an improved -105% cost ratio to predict a -0.3 billion rupiah loss by the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative on investment spending
- Free cashflow was -4 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -3 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a -0.2 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
- Cash declined 2 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 19 to 15 billion rupiah so net cash improved -17 to -14 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 1 billion rupiah liabilities increase net cash will be -15 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, expensive, a -43% lower target price
- GPSO capital raised from the last 23 quarters worsened -12 to -15 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 4 billion rupiah new equity & will be -16 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 85 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.32 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 12 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a -43% lower target price of 73 rupiah.