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Picture
GPSO.jk Cashflow at zero

Current 138 Target 79 -43%

1/9/2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -30%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -40% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -40% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -11% of market cap

Sales grew 42%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
23% 55% -1% -68% 42%
3 ; 4 ; 4 ; 1 ; 2 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 42% in the third quarter to 2 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -8% now.
  • This brings the average to 7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
-50% -49% 32% -53% -28%
-2 ; -2 ; 1 ; -1 ; -1 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from -53% to -28% profit from -1 to -1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -25% now.
  • We use a 6% cash margin from cashflow to predict a -0 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow at zero
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
3 ; -23 ; -1 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
-7 ; -14 ; -0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 1 to 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -9 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 0 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1 ; 1 ; 0 ; 1 ; 1 billion rupiah
15 ; 13 ; 11 ; 13 ; 11 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 1 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 13 to 11 billion rupiah so net cash was up -12 to -10 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -10 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; -18 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
-4 ; -20 ; 0 ; 0 ; -0 billion rupiah
  • GPSO.jk (raised) -0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities -0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 95 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.58 X assets with a 109 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1 billion rupiah which means a 174 X valuation. A 100 X valuation gives a -43% lower target price 79 rupiah.
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