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GOTO dull with negative cashflow
GOTO Current 386 Target 371 -4%
11 Jun 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 24%
Last 5 quarters
9% 34% 0% 0% 24%
Costs down lower loss
Last 5 quarters
-159% -202% -202% -202% -165%
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,298 -34,215 -34,215 -34,215 -4,219
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 2 quarters billion rupiah
15,039, 10,458
Capital raised improved , a -4% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-68,513 -108,914 -149,315 -189,716 -189,706
11 Jun 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 24%
Last 5 quarters
9% 34% 0% 0% 24%
- Cash receipts grew 24% in the first quarter to 1,497 billion rupiah, up 149% from a year ago.
- This brings the average to 37% growth.
- We predict average growth of 14% in this next 12 months to bring cash receipts to 8,778 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down lower loss
Last 5 quarters
-159% -202% -202% -202% -165%
- The cash cost ratio went from -202% to -165% profit from -6,824 to -6,614 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -193% now.
- We use flat cash costs of -7,350 billion rupiah to predict a 667 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,298 -34,215 -34,215 -34,215 -4,219
- Free cashflow went less negative from -34,215 to -4,219 billion rupiah in the first quarter with lower -879 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -26,716 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -879 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 549 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 2 quarters billion rupiah
15,039, 10,458
- Cash declined 31,152 to 27,073 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 16,113 to 16,615 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 15,039 to 10,458 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 3,757 billion rupiah new liabilities payment net cash will be 6,701 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -4% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-68,513 -108,914 -149,315 -189,716 -189,706
- GOTO 17 quarter capital raised improved -189,716 -189,706 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -9 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will be -193,463 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 457,163 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.02 X assets with a 56 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,198 billion rupiah which means a 208 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -4% lower target price 371 rupiah.