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Picture

GOTO sales much higher

GOTO.jk Current 115 Target 134 + 17%

12/7/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 255%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -15% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -24% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 13% of market cap

Sales grew 140%, now closer to cashflow
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 0% 16% 27% 140%
1,287 1,287 1,497 1,903 4,569
  • Sales grew 140% in the third quarter to 4,569 billion rupiah.
  • This brings the average to 46% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 15% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,906 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up loss improves
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-483% -483% -391% -356% -181%
-6,824 -6,824 -6,614 -7,556 -6,742
  • The cash margin went from -356% to -181% profit from -7,556 to -6,742 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -353% now.
  • We use a -58% cash margin to predict a -1,458 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-5,601 -5,601 -3,373 -7,167 -3,442
1,045 1,045 -879 1,405 -175
  • Free cashflow went from -5,762 to -3,617 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -175 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4,547 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 117 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -2,355 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
0, 31,152, 27,073, 35,278, 31,617
0, 16,113, 16,615, 15,787, 15,797
  • Cash declined 35,278 to 31,617 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 15,787 to 15,797 billion rupiah so net cash was down 19,491 to 15,820 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 9,422 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 6,398 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,049 1,049 9 116 139
-15,493 -15,493 0 -13,728 0
  • GOTO.jk paid 139 billion rupiah in the third quarter 139 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will raise -9,422 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 118,296 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a -13 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our sales forecast is 27,566 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 134 rupiah.
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