GOTO sales much higher
GOTO.jk Current 115 Target 134 + 17%
12/7/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 140%, now closer to cashflow
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 0% 16% 27% 140%
1,287 1,287 1,497 1,903 4,569
Margin up loss improves
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-483% -483% -391% -356% -181%
-6,824 -6,824 -6,614 -7,556 -6,742
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-5,601 -5,601 -3,373 -7,167 -3,442
1,045 1,045 -879 1,405 -175
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
0, 31,152, 27,073, 35,278, 31,617
0, 16,113, 16,615, 15,787, 15,797
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,049 1,049 9 116 139
-15,493 -15,493 0 -13,728 0
12/7/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 255%
- Last 12 months cash flow -15% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -24% of market cap
- Latest net cash 13% of market cap
Sales grew 140%, now closer to cashflow
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 0% 16% 27% 140%
1,287 1,287 1,497 1,903 4,569
- Sales grew 140% in the third quarter to 4,569 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average to 46% growth.
- We predict average growth of 15% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,906 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up loss improves
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-483% -483% -391% -356% -181%
-6,824 -6,824 -6,614 -7,556 -6,742
- The cash margin went from -356% to -181% profit from -7,556 to -6,742 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at -353% now.
- We use a -58% cash margin to predict a -1,458 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-5,601 -5,601 -3,373 -7,167 -3,442
1,045 1,045 -879 1,405 -175
- Free cashflow went from -5,762 to -3,617 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -175 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4,547 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 117 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -2,355 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
0, 31,152, 27,073, 35,278, 31,617
0, 16,113, 16,615, 15,787, 15,797
- Cash declined 35,278 to 31,617 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 15,787 to 15,797 billion rupiah so net cash was down 19,491 to 15,820 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 9,422 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 6,398 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,049 1,049 9 116 139
-15,493 -15,493 0 -13,728 0
- GOTO.jk paid 139 billion rupiah in the third quarter 139 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will raise -9,422 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 118,296 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a -13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 27,566 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 134 rupiah.