GOTO more negative cashflow
GOTO Current 302 Target 244 -19%
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
Cash receipts grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
52% 62% 0% 2% 4%
3,162 5,114 5,114 5,197 5,388
Costs up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio
-179% -210% -210% -165% -233%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-2,487 -5,601 -5,601 -3,373 -7,167
-91,268 1,045 1,045 -879 1,405
Net cash up (from IPO)
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
31,152 27,073 35,278
16,113 16,615 15,787
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-170,829 -185,273 -199,716 -199,707 -213,319
2,215 1,049 1,049 9 116
-104,531 -15,493 -15,493 0 -13,728
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
- GOTO last 12 months sales growth 3.5X average + 70%
- GOTO last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
- GOTO last 12 months Capital -12% of market cap
- GOTO latest net cash + 5% of market cap
Cash receipts grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
52% 62% 0% 2% 4%
3,162 5,114 5,114 5,197 5,388
- Cash receipts grew 4% in the second quarter to 5,388 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v receipts is + 10% now.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 17% again in this next 12 months to bring receipts to 9,750 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio
-179% -210% -210% -165% -233%
- The cash cost ratio went from -165% to -233% in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -204% now.
- We use a -160% average cost ratio in our forecasts.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-2,487 -5,601 -5,601 -3,373 -7,167
-91,268 1,045 1,045 -879 1,405
- Free cashflow went from -4,252 to -5,762 billion rupiah in the second quarter even with positive 1,405 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4,781 billion rupiah now.
- We assume positive 263 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher receipts gives an improved -4,321 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up (from IPO)
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
31,152 27,073 35,278
16,113 16,615 15,787
- Cash increased 27,073 to 35,278 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 16,615 to 15,787 billion rupiah so net cash was up 10,458 to 19,491 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 17,284 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 2,207 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-170,829 -185,273 -199,716 -199,707 -213,319
2,215 1,049 1,049 9 116
-104,531 -15,493 -15,493 0 -13,728
- GOTO cumulative capital worsened -199,707 to -213,319 billion rupiah with + 116 & -13,728 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -230,603 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 354,578 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.29 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cash receipts forecast is 31,884 billion rupiah (vs 20,812 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means an 11 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 244 rupiah.
