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GOOG looking sharp with record cashflow
GOOG Current 2,299 Target 2,923 + 27%
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -10%
Last 5 quarters
-3% 12% 5% 16% -10%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-61% -62% -69% -61% -66%
Cashflow higher to a record
Last 5 quarters million dollars
13,906 12,816 15,489 13,918 16,055
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-70,460 -74,192 -79,117 -76,127 -82,206
Capital paid improved , a 27% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
91,032, 107,023, 122,277, 138,788, 155,002
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -10%
Last 5 quarters
-3% 12% 5% 16% -10%
- Sales declined seasonally -10% in the first quarter to 68,011 million dollars -5% below our 71,559 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 21,392 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-61% -62% -69% -61% -66%
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -66% profit from 20,642 to 16,436 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -64% now.
- We use the average -64% cost ratio to predict a 21,392 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher to a record
Last 5 quarters million dollars
13,906 12,816 15,489 13,918 16,055
- Free cashflow went from 13,918 to a record16,055 million dollars in the first quarter with -9,051 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 14,570 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -9,051 million dollars investment spending which with lower sales gives 17,921 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-70,460 -74,192 -79,117 -76,127 -82,206
- Cash declined 20,945 to 20,886 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 97,072 to 103,092 million dollars so net cash worsened -76,127 to -82,206 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -59,433 million dollars equity payout -11,590 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -70,616 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 27% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
91,032, 107,023, 122,277, 138,788, 155,002
- GOOG 25 quarter capital paid improved 138,788 to 155,002 million dollars in the first quarter with a -16,216 million dollars equity payment & will be 226,025 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,508,199 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 4.1 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 71,023 million dollars which means an 21 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 27% higher target price 2,923 dollars.