GOOD cashflow still low
GOOD Current 540 Target 430 -20%
Aug 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
1,912 2,184 2,431 2,777 2,405
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -90% -89% -93% -92%
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
140 35 72 12 38
Net cash up to -15% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,754 -2,832 -2,832 -3,278 -3,016
Capital improved, last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,284 -1,044 -1,069 -1,008 -726
Aug 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
1,912 2,184 2,431 2,777 2,405
- Sales declined -13% in the second quarter to 2,405 billion rupiah -4% below our 2,499 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,699 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -90% -89% -93% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -92% profit from 114 to 100 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio to predict a 103 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
140 35 72 12 38
- Free cashflow went from 12 to 38 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -40 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 39 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -38 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 151 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up to -15% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,754 -2,832 -2,832 -3,278 -3,016
- Cash declined 856 to 611 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,134 to 3,627 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,278 to -3,016 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -132 billion rupiah equity payout -472 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,488 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,284 -1,044 -1,069 -1,008 -726
- GOOD 30 quarter cumulative capital improved improved -1,008 to -726 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 61 billion rupiah from liabilities + 222 billion rupiah from equity & will be -123 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,728 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.1 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 604 billion rupiah which means a 33 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a -20% lower target price of 430 rupiah.
