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GOOD, less dull as sales rise, but too expensive
GOOD Current 550 Target 583 + 6%
May 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 14%
Last 5 quarters
15% -16% 14% 11% 14%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-92% -90% -90% -89% -93%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
48,140, 35, 72, 12
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,922 -2,754 -2,832 -2,832 -3,278
Capital raised improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,314 -1,284 -1,044 -1,069 -1,008
May 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 14%
Last 5 quarters
15% -16% 14% 11% 14%
- Sales grew 14% in the fourth quarter to 2,777 billion rupiah 9% above our 2,552 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,086 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-92% -90% -90% -89% -93%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -93% profit from 122 to 114 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use the average -91% cost ratio to predict a 201 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
48,140, 35, 72, 12
- Free cashflow went from 72 to 12 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -37 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 64 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -37 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 237 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,922 -2,754 -2,832 -2,832 -3,278
- Cash declined 904 to 856 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,736 to 4,134 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -2,832 to -3,278 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -202 billion rupiah equity payout -678 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,600 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,314 -1,284 -1,044 -1,069 -1,008
- GOOD 29 quarter capital raised improved -1,069 to -1,008 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -60 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -128 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 20,093 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.9 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 820 billion rupiah which means an 25 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price of 583 rupiah.