GOLD Cashflow less positive
Current 19 Target 23 + 23%
1/7/2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -12%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-2% 17% -14% 0% -12%
2,826 ; 3,310 ; 2,853 ; 2,859 ; 2,527 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
35% 43% 40% 34% 32%
612 ; 1,152 ; 706 ; 717 ; 410 million dollars
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,050 ; 1,387 ; 1,004 ; 924 ; 758 million dollars
-499 ; -387 ; 9 ; -301 ; -639 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
5,043 ; 5,280 ; 5,887 ; 5,780 ; 5,240 million dollars
14,544 ; 14,583 ; 14,680 ; 14,308 ; 14,135 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid
646 ; 763 ; 406 ; 727 ; 656 million dollars
Current 19 Target 23 + 23%
1/7/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -11%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 8% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -26% of market cap
Sales declined -12%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-2% 17% -14% 0% -12%
2,826 ; 3,310 ; 2,853 ; 2,859 ; 2,527 million dollars
- Sales declined -12% in the third quarter to 2,527 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -100% now.
- This brings the average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,081 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
35% 43% 40% 34% 32%
612 ; 1,152 ; 706 ; 717 ; 410 million dollars
- The cash margin went from 34% to 32% profit from 717 to 410 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 37% now.
- We use a 37% cash margin to predict a 795 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,050 ; 1,387 ; 1,004 ; 924 ; 758 million dollars
-499 ; -387 ; 9 ; -301 ; -639 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 623 to 119 million dollars in the third quarter with -639 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 689 million dollars now.
- We assume -387 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 694 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
5,043 ; 5,280 ; 5,887 ; 5,780 ; 5,240 million dollars
14,544 ; 14,583 ; 14,680 ; 14,308 ; 14,135 million dollars
- Cash declined 5,780 to 5,240 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 14,308 to 14,135 million dollars so net cash was down -8,528 to -8,895 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -896 million dollars equity payout -1,879 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -7,016 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid
646 ; 763 ; 406 ; 727 ; 656 million dollars
- GOLD paid 656 million dollars in the third quarter -56 million dollars liabilities -600 million dollars equity, will pay 2,775 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 33,778 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.72 X assets with a 15 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,775 million dollars which means a 12 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 23% higher target price 23 dollars.