sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
Picture

GLVA is 0.4X cashflow…

GLVA Current 310 Target 953 + 208%

Aug 12, 2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months cash flow + 234% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 210% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -105% of market cap
​
Sales declined seasonally -12%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% 44% 35% -15% -12%
325 468 631 538 471
  • Sales declined seasonally -12% in the second quarter to 471 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 0% now.
  • This brings the average to 13% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 549 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
​
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-48% -44% -37% -45% -38%
4 5 2 4 8
  • The cash cost ratio went from -45% to -38% profit from 4 to 8 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -41% now.
  • We use a -44% cost ratio to predict a 302 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
173 213 376 274 289
-5 -24 -1 -3 -37
  • Free cashflow went from 271 to 252 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -37 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 272 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -14 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 325 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
33 53 110 136 144
260 297 389 552 630
  • Cash increased 136 to 144 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 552 to 630 billion rupiah so net cash was down -416 to -486 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,059 billion rupiah equity payout -117 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -245 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,260 2,429 2,747 2,932 3,236
210 169 318 215 304
9 0 0 -30 0
  • GLVA cumulative capital improved 2,932 to 3,236 billion rupiah with + 304 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 4,411 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 465 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.44 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 228% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,300 billion rupiah which means an 0.4 X valuation. A 1.1 X valuation gives a 208% higher target price 953 rupiah.
Picture
SUBSCRIBE
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital