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GLVA, a 126% higher target price
Current 276 Target 625 +126%
November 24th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 44%
Costs improve 4 points
Cashflow higher
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a 7% yield, 126% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 44%
- Sales jumped 44% in the third quarter to 468 billion rupiah vs our 445 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% to bring sales to 616 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs improve 4 points
- The cash cost ratio was 4 points lower at -94% in the third quarter giving a 22 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is much lower at -61% now.
- We use the latest -94% cost ratio to predict a 30 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow higher
- Free cashflow was higher 189 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & with -24 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 133 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -15 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 24 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash increased from 33 to 53 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 260 to 297 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -227 to -244 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -30 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -196 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 7% yield, 126% higher target price
- GLVA capital from the last 15 quarters increased to 2,429 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -169 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 2,507 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 414 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.78 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 78 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 126% higher target price of 625 rupiah.