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GLVA, a 126% higher target price
Current 276 Target 625 +126%

November 24th 2021
1 minute read

Sales jumped 44%
  • Sales jumped 44% in the third quarter to 468 billion rupiah vs our 445 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to -2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 8% to bring sales to 616 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs improve 4 points
  • The cash cost ratio was 4 points lower at -94% in the third quarter giving a 22 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is much lower at -61% now.
  • We use the latest -94% cost ratio to predict a 30 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow higher
  • Free cashflow was higher 189 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & with -24 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 133 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -15 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 24 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • Cash increased from 33 to 53 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 260 to 297 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -227 to -244 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -30 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -196 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a 7% yield, 126% higher target price
  • GLVA capital from the last 15 quarters increased to 2,429 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -169 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 2,507 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 414 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.78 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 7% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 78 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 126% higher target price of 625 rupiah.
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