GLVA is 0.4X cashflow…
GLVA Current 310 Target 953 + 208%
Aug 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -12%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% 44% 35% -15% -12%
325 468 631 538 471
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-48% -44% -37% -45% -38%
4 5 2 4 8
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
173 213 376 274 289
-5 -24 -1 -3 -37
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
33 53 110 136 144
260 297 389 552 630
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,260 2,429 2,747 2,932 3,236
210 169 318 215 304
9 0 0 -30 0
Aug 12, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 234% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 210% of market cap
- Latest net cash -105% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -12%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% 44% 35% -15% -12%
325 468 631 538 471
- Sales declined seasonally -12% in the second quarter to 471 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 0% now.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 549 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-48% -44% -37% -45% -38%
4 5 2 4 8
- The cash cost ratio went from -45% to -38% profit from 4 to 8 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -41% now.
- We use a -44% cost ratio to predict a 302 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
173 213 376 274 289
-5 -24 -1 -3 -37
- Free cashflow went from 271 to 252 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -37 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 272 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -14 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 325 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
33 53 110 136 144
260 297 389 552 630
- Cash increased 136 to 144 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 552 to 630 billion rupiah so net cash was down -416 to -486 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,059 billion rupiah equity payout -117 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -245 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,260 2,429 2,747 2,932 3,236
210 169 318 215 304
9 0 0 -30 0
- GLVA cumulative capital improved 2,932 to 3,236 billion rupiah with + 304 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 4,411 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 465 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.44 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 228% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,300 billion rupiah which means an 0.4 X valuation. A 1.1 X valuation gives a 208% higher target price 953 rupiah.
