GJTL cashflow more negative
GJTL Current 630 Target 603 -4%
10/30/22
1 minute read
18% 5% 2% -4% 10%
3,939 4,145 4,225 4,063 4,465
Costs up profit up
GJTL cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-97% -94% -93% -97% -103%
-80 64 70 -138 -108
Cashflow more negative
GJTL operating & investment billion rupiah
-790 1,004 311 67 -31
-67 -141 -74 -255 -255
Net cash down
GJTL cash & liabilities billion rupiah
816 839 1,005 964 654
12,269 11,481 11,869 12,340 12,693
Capital improved
GJTL cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,148 2,960 3,031 2,885 2,911
-276 808 71 -146 26
32 3 0 0 0
10/30/22
1 minute read
- GJTL last 12 months sales growth + 13%
- GJTL last 12 months cash flow + 29% of market cap
- GJTL last 12 months Capital + 35% of market cap
- GJTL latest net cash -548% of market cap
18% 5% 2% -4% 10%
3,939 4,145 4,225 4,063 4,465
- Sales grew 10% in the third quarter to 4,465 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,737 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
GJTL cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-97% -94% -93% -97% -103%
-80 64 70 -138 -108
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -103% profit from -138 to -108 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use a -95% cost ratio to predict a 46 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
GJTL operating & investment billion rupiah
-790 1,004 311 67 -31
-67 -141 -74 -255 -255
- Free cashflow went from -188 to -286 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -255 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 157 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -195 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 29 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
GJTL cash & liabilities billion rupiah
816 839 1,005 964 654
12,269 11,481 11,869 12,340 12,693
- Cash declined 964 to 654 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 12,340 to 12,693 billion rupiah so net cash was down -11,376 to -12,039 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -34 billion rupiah equity payout -82 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -11,957 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
GJTL cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,148 2,960 3,031 2,885 2,911
-276 808 71 -146 26
32 3 0 0 0
- GJTL cumulative capital improved 2,885 to 2,911 billion rupiah with + 26 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 3,028 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,195 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 117 billion rupiah which means a 19 X valuation. An 18 X valuation gives a -4% lower target price 603 rupiah.
