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GJTL less sharp as seasonally negative, but cheap at 4X our cashflow forecast
GJTL Current 700 Target 1,110 + 59%
Jul 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -4%
Last 5 quarters
-15% 18% 5% 2% -4%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -94% -93% -97%
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-222, -857, 863, 237, -188
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,357 -11,453 -10,642 -10,864 -11,376
Capital paid worsened a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,393, 2,148, 2,960, 3,031, 2,885
Jul 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -4%
Last 5 quarters
-15% 18% 5% 2% -4%
- Sales declined seasonally -4% in the second quarter to 4,063 billion rupiah -10% below our 4,521 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,733 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -94% -93% -97%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -97% profit from 70 to -138 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use a lower -94% cost ratio to predict a 110 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-222, -857, 863, 237, -188
- Free cashflow went seasonally negative from 237 to -188 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -255 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 14 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -134 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -140 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months,
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,357 -11,453 -10,642 -10,864 -11,376
- Cash declined 1,005 to 964 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 11,869 to 12,340 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -10,864 to -11,376 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -86 billion rupiah equity payout -467 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,887 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,393, 2,148, 2,960, 3,031, 2,885
- GJTL 30 quarter capital paid worsened 3,031 to 2,885 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -146 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity but will be 3,584 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,439 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a 33 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 553 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 59% higher target price 1,110 rupiah.
