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GJTL looking still sharp at only 3X forecast cashflow
GJTL Current 650 Target 1,536 + 136%
May 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
3% -15% 18% 5% 2%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-90% -96% -98% -94% -94%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
105, -222, -857, 863, 237
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,150 -10,357 -11,453 -10,642 -10,864
Capital paid improved a 136% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,781, 2,393, 2,148, 2,960, 3,031
May 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
3% -15% 18% 5% 2%
- Sales grew 2% in the first quarter to 4,225 billion rupiah 2% above our 4,145 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,934 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-90% -96% -98% -94% -94%
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -94% profit from 64 to 70 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the latest -94% cost ratio to predict a 97 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
105, -222, -857, 863, 237
- Free cashflow went from 863 to 237 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -74 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -74 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 199 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,150 -10,357 -11,453 -10,642 -10,864
- Cash increased 839 to 1,005 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 11,481 to 11,869 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -10,642 to -10,864 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -71 billion rupiah equity payout -693 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,149 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved a 136% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,781, 2,393, 2,148, 2,960, 3,031
- GJTL 29 quarter capital paid improved 2,960 to 3,031 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -71 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 3,774 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,265 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.12 X assets with a 23 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 764 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 136% higher target price 1,536 rupiah.