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Picture

GIAA cashflow less negative

GIAA.jk Current 222 Target 197 -11%

12/13/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 184%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -11% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -2,222% of market cap

Sales grew 27%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-34% 64% -12% 54% 27%
3,470 ; 5,677 ; 5,017 ; 7,748 ; 9,847
  • Sales grew 27% in the third quarter to 9,847 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is +32% now.
  • This brings the average to 33% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 12,360 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-203% -556% -0% 812% 16%
-10,959 ; -35,793 ; -3,211 ; 58,388 ; -971
  • The cash margin went from 812% to 16% profit from 58,388 to -971 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 68% now.
  • We use a 10% cash margin to predict a -2,244 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,175 ; 1,529 ; 2,521 ; -2,151 ; -552
-500 ; -114 ; -138 ; -812 ; -905
  • Free cashflow went from -2,964 to -1,457 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -905 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -156 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -905 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 213 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
602 ; 771 ; 1,203 ; 1,906 ; 2,638
186,651 ; 189,900 ; 191,738 ; 120,359 ; 130,320
  • Cash increased 1,906 to 2,638 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 120,359 to 130,320 billion rupiah so net cash was down -118,453 to -127,682 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -851 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -126,830 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-315 ; -270 ; 67 ; -82 ; -74
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • GIAA.jk (raised) -74 billion rupiah in the third quarter -74 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 851 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 5,747 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.07 X assets with a 94 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 851 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a -11% lower target price 197 rupiah.
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