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GIAA less dull as cashflow reaching break even
GIAA Current 222 Target 307 + 38%
Jul 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 64% from the third quarter.
Last 5 quarters
59% -5% 8% -33% 64%
Costs down profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-103% -120% -79% -109% -99%
Cashflow almost break even
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-29 -168 -28 -58 -5
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12,532 -12,735 -12,884 -12,985 -13,249
Capital raised worsened , a 38% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-711 -847 -787 -809 -828
Jul 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 64% from the third quarter.
Last 5 quarters
59% -5% 8% -33% 64%
- Sales grew 64% in the fourth quarter to 398 million dollars -6% below our 424 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 8% growth a quarter in the last 12 months.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 561 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-103% -120% -79% -109% -99%
- The cash cost ratio went from -109% to -99% profit from -765 to -2,507 million dollars in the fourth quarter on non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -102% now.
- We use a lower -97% cost ratio to predict a -283 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow almost break even
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-29 -168 -28 -58 -5
- Free cashflow went almost break even from -58 to -5 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -8 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -65 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -8 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 9 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12,532 -12,735 -12,884 -12,985 -13,249
- Cash increased 42 to 54 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 13,027 to 13,303 million dollars so net cash worsened -12,985 to -13,249 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -27 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -13,222 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a 38% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-711 -847 -787 -809 -828
- GIAA 28 quarter capital raised worsened -809 to -828 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -19 million dollars fro, liabilities 0 million dollars from equity but will be -801 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 397 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at only 0.07 X assets with a 261 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 27 million dollars which means a 14 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 38% higher target price 307 rupiah.
