GGRM cashflow positive again
GGRM Current 24,375 Target 47,818 + 96%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Last 12 months Sales growth + 2%
Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
Latest net cash -48% of market cap
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
2% 4% -11% 11% -0%
31,484 32,810 29,291 32,381 32,248
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-92% -93% -94% -98% -96%
1,824 1,470 1,077 -121 542
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,062 -7,796 4,569 801 10,489
-1,091 -1,494 -970 -1,282 -1,299
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
4,086 3,771 5,612 4,774 4,528
25,531 30,676 28,177 27,718 27,245
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
43,809 34,816 36,574 37,022 46,907
-545 -8,993 1,758 448 5,556
5,003 0 0 0 4,329
10/31/22
1 minute read
Last 12 months Sales growth + 2%
Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
Latest net cash -48% of market cap
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
2% 4% -11% 11% -0%
31,484 32,810 29,291 32,381 32,248
- Sales were flat in the third quarter at 32,248 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 34,375 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-92% -93% -94% -98% -96%
1,824 1,470 1,077 -121 542
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -96% profit from -121 to 542 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio to predict a 1,599 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,062 -7,796 4,569 801 10,489
-1,091 -1,494 -970 -1,282 -1,299
- Free cashflow went from -481 to 9,190 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,299 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 755 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,126 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,211 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
4,086 3,771 5,612 4,774 4,528
25,531 30,676 28,177 27,718 27,245
- Cash declined 4,774 to 4,528 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 27,718 to 27,245 billion rupiah so net cash was up -22,944 to -22,717 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,912 billion rupiah equity payout -2,930 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -19,787 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
43,809 34,816 36,574 37,022 46,907
-545 -8,993 1,758 448 5,556
5,003 0 0 0 4,329
- GGRM capital improved 37,022 to 46,907 billion rupiah with + 5,556 & + 4,329 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 52,155 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 46,900 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.55 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,842 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 96% higher target price 47,818 rupiah.
