GGRM sales above forecast
GGRM Current 27,850 Target 48,869 + 75%
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters
30,840 31,484 32,810 29,291 32,381
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-96% -92% -93% -94% -98%
Cashflow negative, last 12 months -8% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,122 1,971 -9,290 3,599 -481
Balance sheet net cash down, last 12 months change -20% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-12,042 -21,445 -26,905 -22,565 -22,944
Capital improved, last 12 months -4% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
39,351 43,809 34,816 36,574 37,022
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters
30,840 31,484 32,810 29,291 32,381
- Sales grew 11% in the second quarter to 32,381 billion rupiah 8% above our 29,877 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 35,779 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-96% -92% -93% -94% -98%
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -98% profit from 1077 to -121 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use an average -93% cost ratio to predict a 1,708 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative, last 12 months -8% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,122 1,971 -9,290 3,599 -481
- Free cashflow went from 3,599 to -481 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1,282 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,050 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,126 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives positive 1,175 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash down, last 12 months change -20% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-12,042 -21,445 -26,905 -22,565 -22,944
- Cash declined 5,612 to 4,774 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- Liabilities declined 28,177 to 27,718 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -22,565 to -22,944 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -5,028 billion rupiah equity payout 327 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -23,271 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved, last 12 months -4% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
39,351 43,809 34,816 36,574 37,022
- GGRM 30 quarter cumulative capital improved 36,574 to 37,022 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 448 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be 42,246 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 53,586 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.63 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,701 billion rupiah which means an 11 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 75% higher target price 48,869 rupiah.
