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GGRM less dull as cashflow turns positive again
GGRM Current 31,375 Target 49,874 + 59%
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -11%
Last 5 quarters
-4% 4% 2% 4% -11%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-92% -96% -92% -93% -94%
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
8,922, -1,122, 1,971, -9,290, 3,599
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-11,861, -12,042, -21,445, -26,905, -22,565
Capital paid improved a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
39,346, 39,351, 43,809, 34,816, 36,574
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -11%
Last 5 quarters
-4% 4% 2% 4% -11%
- Sales declined -11% in the first quarter to 29,291 billion rupiah -12% below our 33,138 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 31,696 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-92% -96% -92% -93% -94%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -94% profit from 1,824 to 1,470 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a lower -93% cost ratio to predict a 1,430 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
8,922, -1,122, 1,971, -9,290, 3,599
- Free cashflow went positive again from -9,290 to 3,599 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -970 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,211 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -970 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,189 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-11,861, -12,042, -21,445, -26,905, -22,565
- Cash increased 3,771 to 5,612 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 30,676 to 28,177 billion rupiah so net cash improved -26,905 to -22,565 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,659 billion rupiah equity payout -2,910 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -19,655 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
39,346, 39,351, 43,809, 34,816, 36,574
- GGRM 29 quarter capital paid improved 34,816 to 36,574 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -1,758 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 5,778 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 60,368 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.67 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,570 billion rupiah which means an 13 X valuation. A 21 X valuation gives a 59% higher target price 49,874 rupiah.