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GEMS super sharp as Cashflow quadruples
GEMS Current 4,670 Target 8,700 +86%
March 9 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 63%
Last 5 quarters
31% 37% -8% -8% 63%
Costs down profit trupled
Last 5 quarters
-87% -73% -86% -81% -70%
Cashflow quadrupled
Last 5 quarters million dollars
65, 96, 54, 45, 169
Balance sheet higher leverage but to turn net cash
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-261 -180 -304 -285 -319
Capital paid improved, a 10% yield forecast, 86% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
176, 208, 398, 474, 547
March 9 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 63%
Last 5 quarters
31% 37% -8% -8% 63%
- Sales soared 63% in the fourth quarter to 528 million dollars 48% above our 356 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 672 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit trupled
Last 5 quarters
-87% -73% -86% -81% -70%
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -70% profit tripled from 54 to 154 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use a -74% cost ratio to predict a 172 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow quadrupled
Last 5 quarters million dollars
65, 96, 54, 45, 169
- Free cashflow quadrupled from 45 to 169 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -2 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 91 million dollars now.
- We assume -3 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 173 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage but to turn net cash
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-261 -180 -304 -285 -319
- Cash increased 99 to 194 million dollars in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 384 to 513 million dollars so net cash worsened slightly -285 to -319 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -195 million dollars equity payout -95 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will turn positive 137 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 10% yield forecast, 86% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
176, 208, 398, 474, 547
- GEMS 28 quarter capital paid improved 474 to 547 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -10 million dollars liabilities -63 million dollars equity payments & will be 837 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,962 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.65 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 10% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 651 million dollars which means an 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 86% higher target price of 8,700 rupiah.