GEMS 21% yield forecast
GEMS Current 7,950 Target 14,634 + 84%
Sep 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales leapt 48%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-8% -8% 63% 2% 48%
352 324 528 539 796
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-86% -81% -70% -74% -73%
46 54 154 136 206
Cashflow doubled
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
56 44 171 108 205
-2 0 -2 -2 -5
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
130 99 194 229 291
434 384 513 495 569
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
398 474 547 613 755
36 15 10 -44 -6
154 61 63 110 148
Sep 8, 2022
1 minute read
- GEMS last 12 months sales growth 6X average + 126%
- GEMS last 12 months cash flow 4X average + 16% of market cap
- GEMS last 12 months Capital 11X average + 11% of market cap
- GEMS latest net cash -9% of market cap
Sales leapt 48%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-8% -8% 63% 2% 48%
352 324 528 539 796
- Sales leapt 48% in the second quarter to 796 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -19% now.
- This brings the average to 26% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 860 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-86% -81% -70% -74% -73%
46 54 154 136 206
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -73% profit from 136 to 206 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use a -74% cost ratio to predict a 218 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow doubled
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
56 44 171 108 205
-2 0 -2 -2 -5
- Free cashflow doubled from 105 to 200 million dollars in the second quarter with -5 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 130 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -5 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 212 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
130 99 194 229 291
434 384 513 495 569
- Cash increased 229 to 291 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 495 to 569 million dollars so net cash was down -266 to -278 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -677 million dollars equity payout -106 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 1,537 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
398 474 547 613 755
36 15 10 -44 -6
154 61 63 110 148
- GEMS cumulative capital improved 613 to 755 million dollars with -6 & + 148 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,537 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,225 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.82 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 21% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 848 million dollars (vs 519 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 84% higher target price 14,634 rupiah.
