sharpfokus
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA
Picture
Other stocks here

GEMS super sharp as Cashflow quadruples

WATCH THE VIDEO
GEMS Current 4,670 Target 8,700 +86%

March 9 2022
1 minute read

Sales soared 63%
Last 5 quarters
31% 37% -8% -8% 63%
  • Sales soared 63% in the fourth quarter to 528 million dollars 48% above our 356 million dollars forecast.
  • This brings the average to 21% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 672 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Costs down profit trupled
Last 5 quarters
-87% -73% -86% -81% -70%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -70% profit tripled from 54 to 154 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
  • We use a -74% cost ratio to predict a 172 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Cashflow quadrupled
Last 5 quarters million dollars
65, 96, 54, 45, 169
  • Free cashflow quadrupled from 45 to 169 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -2 million dollars investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 91 million dollars now.
  • We assume -3 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 173 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
​
Balance sheet higher leverage but to turn net cash
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-261 -180 -304 -285 -319
  • Cash increased 99 to 194 million dollars in the fourth quarter
  • Liabilities increased 384 to 513 million dollars so net cash worsened slightly -285 to -319 million dollars.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -195 million dollars equity payout -95 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will turn positive 137 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid improved, a 10% yield forecast, 86% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
176, 208, 398, 474, 547
  • GEMS 28 quarter capital paid improved 474 to 547 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -10 million dollars liabilities -63 million dollars equity payments & will be 837 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 1,962 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.65 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 10% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 651 million dollars which means an 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 86% higher target price of 8,700 rupiah.
MODEL, DATA & CHARTS
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA