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Picture

GDYR cashflow positive again

GDYR.jk Current 1,435 Target 1,991 + 39%

12/2/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 40%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -13% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -5% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -195% of market cap

Sales grew 19%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-2% 0% 14% 3% 19%
524 525 600 619 737
  • Sales grew 19% in the third quarter to 737 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 9% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 835 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
1% 4% 1% 2% 0%
-10 -6 -19 -10 -28
  • The cash margin went from 2% to 0% profit from -10 to -28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 2% now.
  • We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 7 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
75 -67 49 -123 166
-30 -14 -24 -32 -31
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -155 to 135 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -31 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -19 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -14 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 17 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
244 171 215 117 204
1,017 1,028 1,132 1,129 1,351
  • Cash increased 117 to 204 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,129 to 1,351 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,012 to -1,146 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -68 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,078 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
46 -13 -11 -65 58
0 0 0 0 0
  • GDYR.jk paid 58 billion rupiah in the third quarter 58 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity , will pay 68 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 588 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.29 X assets with a 27 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 68 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 39% higher target price 1,991 rupiah.
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