GDYR cashflow negative again
GDYR Current 1,310 Target 1,467 + 12%
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-7% -1% 1% 14% 1%
37 37 37 42 42
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-91% -99% -96% -99% -98%
1 -1 -0 -1 -1
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
6 5 -5 3 -8
-1 -2 -1 -2 -2
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
17 17 12 15 8
71 71 72 79 77
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
11 15 14 13 9
5 3 10 -1 -4
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 18, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -31% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -5% of market cap
- Latest net cash -186% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-7% -1% 1% 14% 1%
37 37 37 42 42
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 42 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 0% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 47 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-91% -99% -96% -99% -98%
1 -1 -0 -1 -1
- The cash cost ratio went from -99% to -98% profit from -1 to -1 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use a -95% cost ratio to predict a 1 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
6 5 -5 3 -8
-1 -2 -1 -2 -2
- Free cashflow went from 2 to -11 million dollars in the second quarter with -2 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -3 million dollars now.
- We assume 0 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
17 17 12 15 8
71 71 72 79 77
- Cash declined 15 to 8 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 79 to 77 million dollars so net cash was down -64 to -69 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -8 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -61 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
11 15 14 13 9
5 3 10 -1 -4
0 0 0 0 0
- GDYR cumulative capital worsened 13 to 9 million dollars with -4 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 17 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 37 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at only 0.31 X assets with a 59 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2 million dollars which means a 20 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 1,467 rupiah.
